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USDA reduces U.S. corn, soybean, wheat ending stocks

 

The USDA has lowered 2015/16 U.S. ending stocks projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The next set of supply and demand estimates is out November 10th.

2015/16 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 861 million bushels, compared to 875 million in September and 753 million in 2014/15. With production lowered from 2.136 billion bushels to 2.052 billion, the total supply is pegged at 2.930 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was reduced 20 million bushels to 180 million, for domestic use of 1.219 billion bushels, and exports were slashed 50 million to 850 million bushels, for total use of 2.069 billion. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $4.75 to $5.25 per bushel, compared to $4.65 to $5.35 a month ago and $5.99 a year ago.

2015/16 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.561 billion bushels, compared to 1.592 billion last month and 1.731 billion last year. Following reductions of a combined 31 million bushels in beginning stocks and production, total supply is seen at 15.316 billion. No other changes were made to the balance sheet. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel, compared to $3.45 to $4.05 in September and $3.70 for 2014/15.

2015/16 U.S. soybean ending stocks are estimated at 425 million bushels, compared to 450 million a month ago and 191 million a year ago. Beginning stocks and production projections were lowered by a combined 66 million bushels, total supply is expected to be 4.109 billion. Crush use was raised 10 million bushels to 1.88 billion, and exports were lowered 50 million bushels to 1.675 billion, for total use of 3.685 billion bushels. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $8.40 to $9.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month and down from the average of $10.10 last year.

2015/16 world wheat ending stocks are pegged at 228.49 million tons, compared to 226.56 million in September. Production was raised a little more than a million tons to 732.79 million. The USDA lowered projections for the U.S. and Argentina, and increased outlooks for Australia, Canada, the European Union, North Africa, the dozen smaller former Soviet states, and Ukraine. Domestic feed use is expected to be 137.72 million tons, compared to 138.08 million last month, and exports are estimated at 160.58 million tons, compared to 157.58 million a month ago.

2015/16 world corn ending stocks are estimated at 187.83 million tons, compared to 189.69 million last month. Global production is pegged at 972.6 million tons, down 5.5 million on the month, with reduced expectations for the U.S., Argentina, Southeast Asia, the dozen smaller former Soviet states, and Ukraine, against a slight increase for Brazil. Domestic feed use is projected at 602.49 million tons, compared to 604.84 million a month ago, and exports are seen at 121.93 million tons, compared to 123.48 million in September.

2015/16 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 85.14 million tons, compared to 84.98 million a month ago. World production is expected to be 320.49 million tons, less than a million more than the last guess. USDA lowered the outlook for the U.S., but raised forecasts for Brazil, up to 100 million tons, and the European Union. Imports by China were unchanged at 79 million tons. Domestic crush use is estimated at 272.39 million tons, compared to 271.79 million in September, and exports are pegged at 126.77 million tons, compared to 126.48 million last month.