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USDA increases ending stocks projections

USDA has raised its 2013/14 corn and soybean ending stocks projections, along with larger 2014/15 estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The 2014/15 marketing year for wheat started June 1 and begins September 1 for corn and soybeans.

Supply and demand breakdowns for selected commodities:

2014/15 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 660 million bushels, compared to 574 million in June and 590 million for 2013/14. With beginning stocks at 590 million bushels, down 3 million, and production at 1.992 billion bushels, up 50 million, total supply is estimated at 2.741 billion bushels. USDA lowered feed use by 15 million bushels to 145 million, putting domestic use at 1.181 billion bushels, and exports were reduced 25 million bushels to 900 million, taking total use to 2.081 billion bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $6 to $7.20 per bushel, compared to June’s range of $6.35 to $7.65 and the 2013/14 estimate of $6.87.

2013/14 U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.246 billion bushels, compared to 1.146 billion a month ago and 821 million for 2012/13. The average farm price is estimated at $4.35 to $4.55 per bushel, compared to the average of $6.89 last marketing year.

2014/15 U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.801 billion bushels, compared to 1.726 billion in June. Following the increase in beginning stocks and the decrease in production, total supply is estimated at 15.136 billion bushels, compared to 15.111 billion a month ago. Feed use was lowered 50 million bushels to 5.2 billion, taking domestic demand to 11.635 billion bushels, while total use is put at 13.335 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $3.65 to $4.35 per bushel, compared to $3.85 to $4.55 last month.

2013/14 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, compared to 125 million a month ago and 141 million for the previous marketing year. The average farm price is estimated at $13 per bushel, compared to $14.40 in 2012/13.

2014/15 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 415 million bushels, compared to 325 million last month. USDA raised beginning stocks and production, putting total supply at 3.955 billion bushels, compared to 3.775 billion in June. Crush was raised 40 million bushels to 1.755 billion and exports were increased 50 million bushels to 1.675 billion, which, along with a slight rise in the residual category, takes total use to 3.541 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $9.50 to $11.50, compared to June’s range of $9.75 to $11.75.

2014/15 world wheat ending stocks came out at 189.54 million tons, compared to 188.61 million a month ago. Production is pegged at 705.17 million tons, compared to 701.62 million last month, thanks to increased estimates for the U.S., Australia, the European Union, Brazil, Ukraine, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states. USDA did lower expectations slightly for Canada and Kazakhstan. Domestic feed use is now seen at 129.39 million tons and exports are estimated at 151.61 million tons.

2014/15 world corn ending stocks are projected at 188.05 million tons, compared to 182.65 million in June. Production is seen at 980.96 million tons, compared to 981.12 million last month, following lowered outlooks for the U.S., Canada, and dozen smaller former Soviet states. USDA increased expectations for the European Union and China. Domestic feed demand is now estimated at 593.85 million tons and exports are pegged at 115.22 million tons.

2014/15 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 85.31 million tons, compared to 82.88 million last month. The global crop is expected to be around 304.79 million tons, compared to 299.99 million a month ago, with a larger projection for the U.S. Domestic crush use is now seen at 250.91 million tons and exports are pegged at 113.29 million tons.

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