USDA raises U.S. wheat ending stocks estimate

USDA made a larger than expected increase to its domestic wheat ending stocks estimate, while cutting soybeans slightly more than anticipated and leaving corn unchanged.

The Ag Department projects wheat ending stocks for the 2012/13 marketing year at 754 million bushels, compared to 704 million a month ago on a cut in the export demand projection. The average estimate was 718 million bushels and a year ago, wheat ending stocks were 743 million bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $7.70 to $8.30 per bushel, compared to $7.75 to $8.45 in November.

Corn ending stocks are seen at 647 million bushels, with no month to month changes to the balance sheet, and well below the 988 million this time last year. The pre-report estimate was for an increase up to 666 million bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $6.80 to $8 per bushel, compared to $6.95 to $8.25 last month.

Soybean ending stocks are pegged at 130 million bushels, compared to the average guess of 135 million bushels and the 140 million in November’s report following a 10 million bushel increase in the crush projection. This time last year, soybean ending stocks were seen at 169 million bushels. The average farm price for soybeans is estimated at $13.55 to $15.55 per bushel, compared to $13.90 to $15.90 a month ago.

In the international numbers, USDA tightened the balance sheets for global corn and soybeans, while raising the wheat supply. World wheat production was increased by just less than 4 million tons on larger estimates for Australia, Canada and China. The global corn crop guess was hiked by nearly 10 million tons thanks to bigger projections for Canada, China and the European Union cancelling out expected decreases in Argentina and Ukraine. USDA raised the global soybean production outlook only slightly with no changes for Argentina or Brazil.

On January 11, USDA will release the final 2012 corn and soybean production numbers, quarterly grain stocks and updated supply and demand figures.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:


2012/13 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 754 million bushels, compared to 704 million a month ago and 743 million a year ago. Before the report, ending stocks were pegged at 718 million bushels. USDA lowered export demand 50 million bushels to 1.050 billion, taking total use to 2.388 billion bushels. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $7.70 to $8.30 per bushel, compared to November’s range of $7.75 to $8.45 and the 2011/12 average of $7.24.

2012/13 U.S. corn ending stocks were unchanged on the month at 647 million bushels, with no changes to the balance sheet. The average pre-report estimate was 666 million bushels and a year ago at this time; ending stocks were projected at 988 million bushels. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $6.80 to $8.00 per bushel, compared to $6.95 to $8.25 a month ago and $6.22 a year ago.

2012/13 U.S. soybean ending stocks came out at 130 million bushels, compared to 140 million last month and 169 million last year. Analysts were projecting ending stocks at 135 million bushels. USDA raised the crush demand guess 10 million bushels to 1.570 billion, putting total use at 3.031 billion bushels. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $13.55 to $15.55 per bushel, compared to $13.90 to $15.90 in November and the 2011/12 average of $12.50.

2012/13 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks were reported at 1.480 billion pounds, compared to 1.520 billion a month ago and 2.540 billion a year ago. USDA raised production to 18.290 billion pounds, taking total supply to 21.180 billion. Domestic disappearance was lowered 100 million pounds to 17.900 billion on a reduction for food, feed and other industrial use, down to 13 billion. Exports were raised 600 million pounds to 1.800 billion, putting total use at 19.700 billion pounds. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $.49 to $.53 per pound, compared to $.51 to $.55 last month and $.5190 last year.

2012/13 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks came out at 300,000 short tons, unchanged from both last month and last year. The Ag Department sees production at 37.350 million short tons, up 200,000 from November, putting total supply at 37.900 million short tons. Domestic disappearance was lowered 100,000 short tons to 29.400 million, while exports were raised 300,000 to 8.200 million short tons, taking total supply to 37.600 million. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $440 to $470 per short ton, compared to $455 to $485 a month ago and $393.53 a year ago.

2012/13 world wheat ending stocks are pegged at 176.95 million tons, compared to 174.18 million in November. Global production is seen at 655.11 million tons, compared to 651.43 million a month ago on increased estimates for Australia, Canada and China, which canceled out decreased expectations for Brazil, the European Union and selected Middle East nations. Domestic feed use demand is projected at 132.30 million tons, compared to 131.96 million a month ago, and exports are seen at 132.77 million tons, compared to 132.69 million last month.

2012/13 world corn ending stocks are projected at 117.61 million tons, compared to 117.99 million a month ago. The global crop is estimated at 849.09 million tons, compared to 839.70 million in November’s report following larger expectations for Canada, China and the European Union; USDA did lower estimates for Argentina and Ukraine. Domestic feed use is seen at 514.74 million tons, compared to 507.54 million last month, and exports are estimated at 91.25 million tons, compared to 90.30 million a month ago.

2012/13 world soybean ending stocks were reported at 59.93 million tons, compared to 60.02 million last month. World production is seen at 267.72 million tons, compared to 267.60 million in November. USDA made a slight increase to the European Union projection but did not adjust the outlooks for Argentina and Brazil. Domestic crush use is estimated at 231.14 million tons, unchanged on the month, and exports are seen at 98.85 million tons, compared to 98.55 million in November’s report.


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