Market News

USDA lowers corn guess while raising soybeans

USDA made a smaller than anticipated cut to its’ 2012 U.S. corn production estimate while soybeans came out near the high end of pre-report estimates.

As of October 1, the Ag Department sees this year’s corn crop at 10.706 billion bushels, 21 million below the September guess, and if realized, down 13% from 2011 and the lowest total since 2006. The average yield could be the smallest since 1995 at 122.0 bushels per acre, compared to 122.8 last month and 147.2 last year. Before the report, analysts estimated corn at 10.598 billion bushels with an average yield of 122.7 bushels per acre. USDA raised both the planted and harvested acreage projections less than 1% from the previous estimates to 96.946 million and 87.721 million acres, respectively. The Ag Department adds October 1 objective yield data for corn shows the lowest number of ears per acre since 1995 for Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

This year’s soybean crop is projected at 2.860 billion bushels, up 226 million on the month but potentially down 196 million on the year. The average yield is seen at 37.8 bushels per acre, compared to 35.3 in September and the 2011 average of 41.9. USDA increased both the planted and harvested acreage estimates 1% from last month at 77.203 million and 75.693 million acres, respectively. Objective yield data has lower pod counts in the 11 major soybean producing states, including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota, with the biggest declines in Illinois, Missouri, and Nebraska.

USDA’s next set of production numbers are out November 9.

Selected crops for Brownfield coverage area:

Illinois: Corn: 1.215 billion bushels, compared to 1.947 billion in 2011; average yield of 98 bushels per acre, compared to 110 a month ago and 157 a year ago; planted area of 12.8 million acres; harvested area of 12.4 million acres; Soybeans: 343.2 million bushels, compared to 423.225 million in 2011; average yield of 39 bushels per acre, compared to 37 a month ago and 47.5 a year ago; planted area of 9.05 million acres; harvested area of 8.8 million acres.

Indiana: Corn: 605 million bushels, compared to 839.5 million in 2011; average yield of 100 bushels per acre, compared to 100 a month ago and 146 a year ago; planted area of 6.2 million acres; harvested area of 6.05 million acres; Soybeans: 210.74 million bushels, compared to 240.695 million in 2011; average yield of 41 bushels per acre, compared to 37 a month ago and 45.5 a year ago; planted area of 5.15 million acres; harvested area of 5.14 million acres.

Iowa: Corn: 1.918 billion bushels, compared to 2.356 billion in 2011; average yield of 140 bushels per acre, compared to 140 a month ago and 172 a year ago; planted area of 14.2 million acres; harvested area of 13.7 million acres; Soybeans: 399.47 million bushels, compared to 475.345 million in 2011; average yield of 43 bushels per acre, compared to 39 a month ago and 51.5 a year ago; planted area of 9.35 million acres; harvested area of 9.29 million acres.

Missouri: Corn: 251.250 million bushels, compared to 349.98 million in 2011; average yield of 75 bushels per acre, compared to 75 a month ago and 114 a year ago; planted area of 3.6 million acres; harvested area of 3.35 million acres; Soybeans: 157.5 million bushels, compared to 190.165 million in 2011; average yield of 30 bushels per acre, compared to 28 a month ago and 36.5 a year ago; planted area of 5.4 million acres; harvested area of 5.25 million acres.

Nebraska: Corn: 1.299 billion bushels, compared to 1.536 billion in 2011; average yield of 142 bushels per acre, compared to 145 a month ago and 160 a year ago; planted area of 9.95 million acres; harvested area of 9.15 million acres; Soybeans: 202.95 million bushels, compared to 261.36 million in 2011; average yield of 41 bushels per acre, compared to 40 a month ago and 54 a year ago; planted area of 5.05 million acres; harvested area of 4.95 million acres.

Ohio: Corn: 445.26 million bushels, compared to 508.76 million in 2011; average yield of 123 bushels per acre, compared to 126 a month ago and 158 a year ago; planted area of 3.9 million acres; harvested area of 3.62 million acres; Soybeans: 196.94 million bushels, compared to 217.92 million in 2011; average yield of 43 bushels per acre, compared to 40 a month ago and 48 a year ago; planted area of 4.6 million acres; harvested area of 4.58 million acres.

South Dakota: Corn: 502.9 million bushels, compared to 653.4 million in 2011; average yield of 94 bushels per acre, compared to 96 a month ago and 132 a year ago; planted area of 6.15 million acres; harvested area of 5.35 million acres; Soybeans: 130.2 million bushels, compared to 150.59 million in 2011; average yield of 28 bushels per acre, compared to 28 a month ago and 37 a year ago; planted area of 4.75 million acres; harvested area of 4.65 million acres.

Wisconsin: Corn: 438.15 million bushels, compared to 517.92 million in 2011; average yield of 127 bushels per acre, compared to 130 a month ago and 156 a year ago; planted area of 4.35 million acres; harvested area of 3.45 million acres; Soybeans: 66.3 million bushels, compared to 74.865 million in 2011; average yield of 39 bushels per acre, compared to 36 a month ago and 46.5 a year ago; planted area of 1.71 million acres; harvested area of 1.7 million acres.