Corn, wheat stocks below estimates

USDA’s ending stocks projections for corn and wheat came out below pre-report estimates and while soybeans were up on the month, it was a smaller than expected increase.

Wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year are seen at 654 million bushels, compared to 698 million a month ago and 743 million a year ago. The average pre-report estimate was 627 million bushels. USDA raised the feed and residual use estimate 95 million bushels to 315 million, leaving the other use categories unchanged, while cutting export demand 50 million to 1.15 billion bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $7.65 to $8.55 per bushel, compared to $7.50 to $8.70 in September’s report.

Corn ending stocks are pegged at 619 million bushels, compared to 733 million last month and 988 million last marketing year. Analysts were expecting stocks to be 645 million bushels. Following smaller estimates for beginning stocks and production, total supply was decreased 214 million bushels to 11.769 billion, and the export guess was lowered 100 million bushels to 1.15 billion. The average farm price is seen at $7.10 to $8.50 per bushel, compared to $7.20 to $8.60 a month ago.

Soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, compared to 115 million in September and 169 million at the end of the 2011/12 marketing year. Before the report, the average guess was 134 million bushels. Due to increased beginning stock and production figures, total supply was raised 65 million bushels to 3.05 billion. Crush demand was raised 40 million bushels to 1.54 billion and exports were upped 210 million to 1.265 billion bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $14.25 to $16.25 per bushel, compared to $15 to $17 last month.

USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out November 9.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2012/13 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 654 million bushels, compared to 698 million in September, 743 million for the 2011/12 marketing year, and the 2010/11 total of 862 million bushels. Analysts’ estimates ranged from 550 million to 714 million bushels. With USDA raising the production estimate 1 million bushels to 2.269 billion, total supply is pegged at 3.142 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was raised 95 million bushels to 315 million, putting domestic demand at 1.338 billion bushels, while exports were lowered 50 million to 1.15 billion, taking total use to 2.488 billion bushels. The average estimated 2012/13 farm price is $7.65 to $8.55 per bushel, compared to $7.50 to $8.70 last month and $7.24 last marketing year. The 2010/11 average was $5.70 per bushel.

2012/13 U.S. corn ending stocks were pegged at 619 million bushels, compared to 733 million a month ago, 988 million for the recently ended 2011/12 marketing year, and 1.128 billion in 2010/11. Following USDA’s lowered beginning stocks and production estimates, total supply is seen at 11.769 billion bushels. USDA left domestic use projections unchanged at 10 billion bushels, while lowering exports 100 million to 1.15 billion, putting total use at 11.150 billion bushels. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $7.10 to $8.50 per bushel, compared to September’s range of $7.20 to $8.60 and the 2011/12 average of $6.22. The final farm price for 2010/11 was $5.18 per bushel.

2012/13 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, compared to 115 million last month, 169 million last marketing year, and the 2010/11 total of 215 million bushels. With USDA raising beginning stocks and the production estimates, total supply is pegged at 3.050 billion bushels. The crush guess was increased 40 million bushels to 1.540 billion, exports jumping 210 million bushels to 1.265 billion and residual use upped 1 million to 26 million bushels, total use is seen at 2.920 billion bushels. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $14.25 to $16.25 per bushel, compared to the month ago range of $15 to $17 and the 2011/12 estimate of $12.50. The 2010/11 farm price was $11.30 per bushel.

2012/13 soybean oil ending stocks were reported at 1.270 billion pounds, compared to 1.260 billion in September and 2.620 billion for the recently ended 2011/12 marketing year. Production is expected to be 17.6 billion pounds. Imports were raised 155 million pounds to 350 million, putting total supply at 20.570 billion. Exports were left unchanged on the month at 1.2 billion, taking total use to 19.3 billion pounds. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $.53 to $.57 per pound, compared to $.54 to $.58 last month and $.519 last marketing year. The 2010/11 average farm price was $.5320.

2012/13 soybean meal ending stocks are projected at 300,000 short tons, unchanged on both the month and the marketing year. 2010/11 ending stocks were 350,000 short tons. Production was raised 1 million short tons to 36.7 million and imports were left steady at 300,000, taking total supply to 37.3 million short tons. Domestic use is pegged at 29.5 million short tons, up 300,000 on the month, and exports are seen at 7.5 million, putting total use at 37 million short tons. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $470 to $500 per short ton, compared to September’s range of $485 to $515 and the 2011/12 average of $393.53. The 2010/11 farm price was $345.52 per short ton.

2012/13 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 173 million tons, compared to 176.71 million a month ago. Global production is projected at 653.05 million tons, compared to 658.73 million last month. USDA raised the U.S. estimate very slightly while lowering outlooks for Australia, Canada, the European Union, North Africa, Russia, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed use was raised 2.4 million tons to 132.09 million, while exports were lowered 3.96 million to 130.87 million tons. Of note, the Ag Department has decreased export estimates for the U.S., Australia, Canada, and the E.U., while increasing expectations for Russia and the 12 smaller former Soviet states.

2012/13 world corn ending stocks are pegged at 117.27 million tons, compared to 123.95 million in September. USDA lowered production 2.04 million tons to 841.06 million following smaller projections for the U.S., European Union, and Canada. Domestic feed demand is expected to be 504.49 million tons, compared to 505.84 million a month ago. Exports are seen at 89.92 million tons, compared to 91.01 million last month as a lowered expectation for the U.S. was partially canceled out by an increase for Brazil.

2012/13 world soybean ending stocks are projected at 57.56 million tons, compared to 53.10 million last month. World production is expected to hit 264.28 million tons, compared to 258.13 million a month ago on the increased U.S. estimate. Domestic crush demand was raised 2.08 million tons to 228.99 million tons. Exports are seen at 96.20 million tons, compared to 93.74 million in September on a bigger U.S. estimate cancelling out decreased expectations for Argentina and Brazil.

© Copyright 2012 Brownfield, All rights Reserved. Written For: Brownfield
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