Ahead of Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report, analysts, on average, expect tighter old crop U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The Ag Department will also be updating 2012 U.S. winter wheat estimates and the closely watched South American corn and soybean production figures.
Via Dow Jones Newswires, the average guess for corn carryout is 758 million bushels, compared to 801 million in April, and 1.128 billion the previous marketing year. Projections run from 660 million to 801 million bushels. Soybeans are pegged at 221 million bushels, compared to 250 million last month, and 215 million this time last year, with analysts’ estimates ranging from 200 million to 250 million bushels.
Wheat ending stocks are seen at 781 million bushels, compared to 793 million a month ago, and 862 million a year ago. Analysts’ expectations run from 756 million to 800 million bushels.
Also out Thursday are USDA’s first ending stocks projections for the 2012/13 marketing year. Corn is estimated at 1.704 billion bushels in a range of 1.209 billion to 2.072 billion. New crop beans at seen at 170 million, inside a range of 100 million to 250 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks are expected to be 805 million bushels, with estimates running from 609 million to 963 million bushels.
On average, analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires see the total 2012 U.S. wheat crop at 2.196 billion bushels, up almost 200 million from the 2011 total with projections ranging from a low of 2.054 billion to a high of 2.282 billion bushels.
All winter wheat is seen at 1.634 billion bushels, compared to 1.494 billion last year. Hard red winter is expected to see the biggest year to year increase at 990 million bushels, which would be up 210 million on the year, with soft red winter at 413 million bushels, potentially down 45 million from a year ago. White winter wheat is pegged at 231 million bushels, compared to last year’s total of 256 million bushels.
For South American crop production, world supply and demand estimates should show a pretty significant year to year decline in South American soybean numbers following widespread drought.
According to around a dozen analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, Argentina’s 2012 soybean crop may be 42.0 million tons, down 3 million from USDA’s April estimate, and 7 million less than the 2011 total. Brazil’s soybean crop is pegged at 65.5 million tons, which would be down only a half million on the month, but 10 million lower than a year ago.
Argentina’s corn crop is expected to be around 20.7 million tons, less than a million below USDA’s April guess and down 3.1 million from last year. The exception should be Brazil’s corn crop, which could be around 62.7 million tons, an increase of 700,000 on the month and 5.2 million on the year thanks to comparatively better weather and increased planted area.
The numbers are out May 10 at 7:30 AM Central.