Market News

Not many changes to domestic balance sheets

USDA made very few changes to the U.S. supply and demand tables for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

USDA did lower U.S. wheat ending stocks 20 million bushels to 825 million with an increase in the export estimate cancelling out a decrease in food use. Before the report, estimates ranged from 811 million to 878 million bushels with an average guess of 838 million. The average estimated farm price for the current marketing year, which ends at the end of May, was steady at $7.15 to $7.45 per bushel.

Corn ending stocks were unchanged on the month at 801 million bushels but the projected range for the farm price was tightened $.10 on each end at $5.90 to $6.50 per bushel. Analysts were expecting corn to be around 784 million bushels with expectations running from 746 million to 825 million bushels.

Soybean stocks also held steady at 275 million bushels, while expected range for the average farm price was raised $.30 on each side, up to $11.40 to $12.60 per bushel. Pre-report projections ranged from 225 million to 275 million bushels with the average at 257 million.

The big reason for the price hike on beans was apparently the reduced production estimates for South America following extended periods of hot and dry weather in some of the continent’s key growing areas.

USDA sees Brazil’s bean crop at 68.5 million tons, down 3.5 million from February’s guess, and Argentina’s crop is pegged at 46.5 million tons, down 1.5 million on the month. Contrary to pre-report expectations, USDA did not lower its Argentine and Brazilian corn production estimates. Before the report, on average, analysts saw Argentina’s corn at 21.3 million tons and soybeans at 47 million, while Brazil’s corn crop was pegged at 60.4 million tons and beans were estimated at 69.5 million.

Dow Jones Newswires calls the numbers supportive for beans and neutral on corn and wheat.

2011/12 U.S. wheat ending stocks came out at 825 million bushels, compared to 845 million a month ago and 862 million a year ago. USDA lowered food use 5 million bushels to 930 million, putting domestic use at 1.157 billion, and raised exports 25 million bushels to 1 billion, taking total use to 2.157 billion bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $7.15 to $7.45 per bushel, steady with last month and up sharply from the 2010/11 estimate of $5.70 per bushel.

2011/12 corn ending stocks were reported at 801 million bushels, unchanged on the month and down sharply from 1.128 billion this time last year. USDA made no changes to the U.S. balance sheet. The average farm price is estimated at $5.90 to $6.50 per bushel, compared to February’s range of $5.80 to $6.60 and the 2010/11 estimate of $5.18 per bushel.

2011/12 U.S. soybean ending stocks were pegged at 275 million bushels, steady with a month ago and up from the 215 million a year ago. No month to month changes were made. The average farm price is estimated at $11.40 to $12.60 per bushel, compared to last month’s range of $11.10 to $12.30 and the 2010/11 estimate of $11.30 per bushel.

2011/12 soybean oil ending stocks came out at 2.415 billion pounds, compared to 2.315 billion last month and 2.425 billion last year. USDA lowered the food, feed, and industrial use projection 100 million pounds to 14 billion, putting domestic use at 17.6 billion pounds. The average estimated farm price is $.5050 to $.5450, unchanged on the month and close to the 2010/11 estimate of $.5320.

2011/12 soybean meal ending stocks were reported at 300,000 short tons, steady with a month ago and down from the 350,000 a year ago. USDA sees production at 38.885 million short tons, up 200,000 from February, taking supply to 39.4 million. Domestic use was raised 100,000 short tons to 30.2 million, and exports were also increased 100,000 to 8.9 million, putting total use at 39.100 million short tons. The average farm price is estimated at $310 to $340 per short ton, compared to February’s range of $290 to $320 and the 2010/11 estimate of $345.52 per short ton.

2011/12 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 209.58 million tons, compared to 213.1 million a month ago. World production is estimated at 694.02 million tons, compared to 692.88 million last month, with Australia up 1.2 million to 29.5 million tons, cancelling out a small reduction for the dozen smaller former Soviet Union states. Domestic feed use is placed at 131.06 million tons, compared to 130.66 million last month, and exports are pegged at 142.93 million tons, compared to 140.25 million in February.

2011/12 global corn ending stocks were reported at 124.53 million tons, compared to 125.35 million last month. Production came out at 864.96 million tons, compared to 864.11 million a month ago. USDA lowered South Africa by 500,000 million tons to 12 million tons but, unexpectedly raised Brazil by 1 million to 62 million tons. Feed use is pegged at 512.23 million tons, compared to 510.83 million in February, and exports are projected at 96.15 million tons, compared to 94.93 million a month ago.

2011/12 world soybean ending stocks came out at 57.3 million tons, down from the 60.28 million in February’s update. World production is seen at 245.07 million tons, compared to 251.47 million a month ago. USDA lowered Argentina 1.5 million tons to 48 million and slashed Brazil 3.5 million tons to 72 million. Domestic crush use is estimated at 224.81 million tons, compared to 227.42 million the prior month, and exports are pegged at 90.89 million tons, compared to 92.79 million in February.