Market News

USDA raises winter wheat production outlook

USDA’s increased its outlook for the 2011 U.S. wheat crop.

Winter production is seen at 1.492 billion bushels, up 3% from June and a little larger than 2010’s total. That month to month increase is attributed to a 2% year to year rise in harvested area, from 31.749 million acres up to 32.307 million. The average yield is seen at 46.2 bushels per acre, compared to 45.3 a month ago and 46.8 a year ago.

By class, hard red winter is pegged at 791.25 million bushels with soft red winter at 457.67 million and white winter at 242.819 million bushels.

According to the Ag Department, record yields in Arkansas, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, and Tennessee have offset drought damage in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas along with slow harvest activity and wet weather in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

The durum crop is estimated at 63.72 million bushels, compared to 107.18 million in 2010 as flooding and extremely wet conditions in key growing areas. Harvested area is pegged at 1.647 million acres, down 35% from 2010’s 2.529 million, and the average yield is seen at 38.7 bushels per acre, compared to the year ago average of 42.4.

Spring wheat’s also had a trying growing and planting season. Production is projected at 550.660 million acres, compared to 615.975 million bushels last year, with the average yield at 41.7 bushels per acre, compared to 46.1 in 2010. Harvested area is placed at 13.220 million acres, compared to 13.359 million a year ago.

By type, hard red spring is seen at 504.364 million bushels with soft white spring at 37.328 million and hard white spring at 8.968 million bushels.

Wheat estimates for Brownfield states:

Illinois: WINTER WHEAT: 43.920 million bushels, compared to 15.520 million in 2010; average yield of 61.0 bushels per acre, down 1.0 from June but up 5.0 from a year ago; harvested area of 720,000 acres, compared to 295,000 last year.

Indiana: WINTER WHEAT: 24.570 million bushels, compared to 13.8 million in 2010; average yield of 63.0 bushels per acre, down 2.0 from June but up 3.0 from a year ago; harvested area of 390,000 acres, compared to 230,000 last year.

Missouri: WINTER WHEAT: 36.570 million bushels, compared to 12.6 million in 2010; average yield of 53.0 bushels per acre, up 2.0 from June and 8.0 from a year ago; harvested area of 690,000 acres, compared to 280,000 last year.

Nebraska: WINTER WHEAT: 61.6 million bushels, compared to 64.070 million in 2010; average yield of 44.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from June and up 1.0 from last year; harvested area of 1.4 million acres, compared to 1.49 million last year.

Ohio: WINTER WHEAT: 55.040 million bushels, compared to 45.75 million in 2010; average yield of 64.0 bushels per acre, down 3.0 from June but up 3.0 from a year ago; harvested area of 860,000 acres, compared to 750,000 last year.

South Dakota: WINTER WHEAT: 75.95 million bushels, compared to 63.7 million in 2010; average yield of 49.0 bushels per acre, up 1.0 from June and unchanged from a year ago; harvested area of 1.55 million acres, compared to 1.3 million last year; SPRING WHEAT: 49.14 million bushels, compared to 59.22 million in 2010; average yield of 42.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from a year ago; harvested area of 1.17 million acres, compared to 1.41 million last year.

Wisconsin: WINTER WHEAT: 21.42 million bushels, compared to 14.72 million in 2010; average yield of 68.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from June and up 4.0 from a year ago; harvested area of 315,000 acres, compared to 230,000 last year.