Friday 27th January 2012

Ludwig not surprised by MO crop numbers

While the prospective plantings report shows a one-percent decrease in U.S. soybean acres this year over last year, the 2011 crop could be the third-largest planted area on record. Corn acreage is expected to be five-percent larger this year over last.

In some states, like Missouri, both corn and soybean acreage is predicted to be higher. Missouri Soybean Association CEO Dale Ludwig.

“Interestingly enough, how can you see an increase – a dramatic increase in acres of corn as well as soybeans at the same time – when we were, quite honestly – you know, 5.15 million acres was a pretty large base in the state and we’re gonna go up from there?”

And, Ludwig says here’s how, “What we’re seeing is – we’re seeing acres that are coming out of pasture. There’s some grass or idle ground or CRP acres that are gonna go into corn and soybeans that hadn’t been in before. That’s kind of the only way you can answer that question.”

Ludwig says demand is up for both crops. “We need to make a large crop of both corn and soybeans so that we can put a little downward pressure on prices and make sure our livestock producers are able to stay in business and make a little more money.”

Ludwig says the USDA numbers were expected. Missouri is seen with 5% more corn and 3% more soybean acres over 2010.

Ludwig says Missouri growers aren’t going to get an early start on planting. With a little corn in the ground he says the soil is still very cool and wet right now.

AUDIO: Dale Ludwig (2 min. MP3)

Limit up corn leads soybeans, wheat sharply higher

Soybeans were sharply higher on speculative buying, along with spillover from corn. USDA pegs planted area at 76.6 million acres, down on the year and a little smaller than expected, with quarterly stocks below estimates. These are the prospective numbers, so expect some change and efforts to buy more from soybean traders. Weekly export sales were lower than expected but shipments continue to move at a quick pace. Soybean meal and oil were sharply higher following the lead of soybeans.

Corn was limit up on speculative and commercial buying. Corn acreage is seen at 92.2 million acres, up on the year and above expectations, but there’s some talk that corn still needs to buy more and there are probable planting delays in some of the key areas of the Cornbelt. Also, quarterly stocks were down sharply due to strong feed and ethanol demand. Corn will have an expanded trading limit Friday. Weekly export sales were a new marketing year high following a big purchase by unknown destinations. Ethanol futures were higher.

The wheat complex was sharply higher on speculative buying and spillover from corn and soybeans. Wheat acreage is seen up on the year and was larger than expected with stocks also above a year ago, and fundamentals remain bearish, especially from the demand side. That said – the trade’s definitely watching weather issues in key U.S. growing areas. European wheat followed the U.S. lead higher. Taiwan bought 69,230 tons of U.S. dark northern spring wheat.

Analyst calls for renewed demand rationing

USDA’s quarterly grain stocks update shows year to year declines and according to one analyst, it also shows the renewed need to ration demand.

Don Roose, President of U.S. Commodities, says to watch a couple of big factors, “We’re going to have to slow down the [soybean crush]. At the same time, China’s just been a relentless buyer of soybeans, so what we’re going to watch there on a weekly basis is whether the weekly export sales slow down. That’s going to be same thing for corn: do we see the export sales slow down, do we see the ethanol on the weekly grind slow down.”

Roose adds “The livestock number’s going to be very difficult but I think what we’re going to look for is to see if these weights are less than what we really need and that’s been the issue so far on cattle and hogs. Our weights have been over a year ago so the profitability’s there. That’s a signal to the livestock industry: try and feed these livestock to the maximum plus excess weight to get them more tonnage since we don’t have the numbers.”

USDA’s national weekly crop condition reports start Monday, April 4 at 3 PM Central and updated supply and demand projections are out Friday, April 8 at 7:30 AM Central.

Don Roose analyzes the numbers (7 Minutes, MP)

Western milk poses no threat to health

Officials from the Food and Drug Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency say that while increased levels of radiation have been found in milk samples in California and Washington, “the level is 5,000-times below the danger threshold.” FDA senior scientist Patricia Hansen said “Radiation is all around us in our daily lives” and the amount found in the milk is well-below what is normally found in a banana.

Radioactivity levels are being monitored in milk and officials say any significant contamination would be caught. Milk is more susceptible because I-131 becomes concentrated in milk when cows eat contaminated grass. Authorities stress there is no danger to public health in the United States.

FDA is maintaining a radiation safety website here:

House passes Regulatory Burdens Act

On a bipartisan 292 to 130 vote the House has passed Reducing Regulatory Burdens Act of 2011. HR 872 states National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permits are not required when applying pesticides according to their EPA approved label.

For nearly 40 years, water quality concerns from pesticide applications were addressed within the registration process under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), but a federal court ruling in 2009 changed that to include NPDES requirements under the Clean Water Act. Opponents charged the change needlessly exposed farmers to potential citizen action suits; HR 872 amends the Clean Water Act and FIFRA to restore the original standards.

The House action quickly drew praise from House Ag Committee leadership, the National Corn Growers Association, National Council of Farmer Cooperatives and others who now encourage the Senate to approve the measure.

Cargill buys unfinished Iowa ethanol plant

Cargill has purchased the unfinished Tate & Lyle corn ethanol plant in Fort Dodge, Iowa.  

Construction on the plant began in September of 2006, but was halted in early 2009, with Tate & Lyle blaming the struggling ethanol market.

The plant is a corn wet mill ethanol facility with the ability to grind 150-thousand bushels of corn per day and produce 115 million gallons of ethanol per year.

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey says the purchase is very welcome news.

“It’s great news for those folks in that central Iowa area,” Northey says. “It will be great to be able to have another plant that’s buying some grain—producing 100 jobs there.”

And Northey says, if the Fort Dodge facility models other Cargill plants, it could bring in some related businesses as well.

“Ten or 20 years down the road, you see a plant that’s not only a corn processing plant—but other plants that get around those areas and start to use some of the co-product,” Northey says.

Cargill officials say they hope to replicate the success they have had with their operations in Blair, Nebraska and Eddyville, Iowa.

A Fort Dodge newspaper—The Messenger—says the purchase price for the plant was 57 million dollars.

Cargill news release

Cattle and hog futures settle higher on Thursday

There was a little cattle cleanup trade in Kansas at 123.00 and Nebraska at 125.00 on Thursday, at the top of Wednesday’s range. Otherwise cattle country was very quiet on Thursday, business appears to nearly complete for the week. Trade volumes were generally impressive on Wednesday with feedlot managers responding to historically higher prices. DTN says feedlot managers will start out next week pricing new show lists sharply higher. Cattle slaughter was estimated at 128,000 head, 1,000 less than last week, but 7,000 more than last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were steady to firm on moderate to good demand and moderate to heavy offerings. Choice boxed beef was up .23 at 188.41, and select was .31 higher at 185.22.

Chicago Mercantile exchange live cattle contracts settled 100 to 235 points higher. Deferred issues benefitted from the renewed bullishness in the corn pit. Sharply higher cash prices yesterday, a weaker dollar, and firmer boxed beef prices at midday were also viewed as supportive to live contracts. April settled 1.00 higher at 121.55, and the June was up 1.40 at 129.97.

Feeder cattle ended the session 15 to 72 points higher on spillover support from the live pit. March expired at midday and was supported by the recent strength in the cash index. Activity in deferred issues was more tentative due to the underscored threat of explosive feed costs. March went off the board at 134.02 up .47, April was up .32 at 137.80, and May was .57 higher at 139.37.

A large cattle sale at the Hub City Livestock Auction at Aberdeen, SD had receipts of 7,362 head on Wednesday. Feeder steers sold $7 to 11.00 higher with NHTC verified offerings bringing a premium of 5.00 to 10.00 above yesterday’s averages. Feeder heifers were 4.00 to 7.00 higher, with NHTC verified heifers bringing a premium of 3.00 to 6.00 above the averages. There was excellent quality with a very active market and very good demand. 520 head of feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 869 pounds traded at an average of 131.99 per hundredweight. 426 heifers averaging 828 pounds brought 123.55.

Lean hog contracts settled 117 to 145 points higher on the strength in other commodities. The back of the pit was supported by the bullish corn reports which threaten to reduce long term production due to higher feed costs. April settled .17 higher at 93.72, and June was up .72 at 103.87.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed 1.76 higher at 87.54 on a carcass basis, the west was up 2.14 at 87.82, and the East was down .80 at 86.87. Missouri direct base carcass meat price closed steady to 1.00 higher from 80.00 to 81.00.

Pork trading was slow, with light to moderate demand and offerings. Pork carcass cutout value was up .61 at 95.39.

Thursday’s hog slaughter was estimated at 420,000 head, 2,000 more than last week, but 10,000 less than last year. For the week ending March 26, Iowa barrows and gilts averaged 274.1 pounds, .9 pound lighter than the previous week and 4.1 pounds heavier than 2010.

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: March 31, 2011

May corn closed at $6.93 and 1/4, up 30 cents
May soybeans closed at $14.10 and 1/4, up 38 and 1/4 cents
May soybean meal closed at $370.70, up $10.20
May soybean oil closed at 58.78, up 146 points
May wheat closed at $7.63 and 1/4, up 36 cents
April live cattle closed at $121.55, up $1.00
April lean hogs closed at $93.72, up 17 cents
May crude oil closed at $106.72, up $2.45
May cotton closed at 200.23, up 656 points
April Class III milk closed at $16.71, up 6 cents
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,319.73, down 30.88 points

CHS directors lobby for trade, infrastructure

Board members of the cooperative CHS have been in Washington, D.C. this week talking to lawmakers about issues important to them. Among other issues, the delegation is expressing support for the South Korea, Colombia and Panama Free Trade Agreements currently awaiting congressional action, according to Mike Toelle, CHS Board Chairman.

“Free trade’s imperative to opening markets for our agricultural products that we produce here in the United States, and of course CHS and cooperatives play a significant role in that supply chain,” Toelle told Brownfield, speaking from Capitol Hill in an interview Wednesday.

The group is getting a sympathetic ear from senators on both sides of the aisle as they lobby in support of maintaining shipping infrastructure on inland waterways as well as addressing several agricultural and business tax issues.

“I’m optimistic, yet my take-away analysis is we’ve still got a lot of heavy lifting to do here,” said Toelle. “We can’t let up, we’ve got to keep talking to our decision makers and making sure they understand what’s happening out in Rural America.”

The overriding issue affecting every piece of legislation is the huge federal deficit, says Toelle.

“To be candid, the budget and funding are on the top of everyone’s mind as you enter the offices and engage in these discussions,” said Toelle. “It’s not going to be easy, but on the other hand, I think we have a good delegation of supporters around agriculture and Rural America.”

Toelle, who farms in Central Minnesota, is one of 17 CHS board members.

AUDIO: Mike Toelle (9 min. MP3)

The key to success…”Listen to the customer”

This is the 51st WPS Farm Show and one of the exhibitors that has been at most of those shows is Lauri Heikenen of H & S Manufacturing. Over the years his company has grown from forage boxes to an extensive line of forage implements and other machinery.

So why has H & S grown and progressed while many competitors fell by the wayside? Heikenen thinks the key has been listening to the customer, an important part of implementing that philosophy is that he, his sons and the other top people in the company are the ones who work the shows. “They tell us what they want and what they need.”  His advice to anyone looking to get into business, “Listen to your customer.”

When asked if he had it to do over again, would he do anything differently? The 87-year-old quips he would rather count his blessings than count his mistakes.

AUDIO: Heikenen talks about his company 9:26 mp3