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USDA increases soybean production estimate, lowers corn

USDA has raised its estimate of 2009 soybean production while lowering the corn projection.

The 2009 U.S. soybean crop is seen at a record 3.319 billion bushels, compared to October’s estimate of 3.250 billion and the 2008 total of 2.967 billion bushels. That’s because of improved yield projections in most states, the exceptions being Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Mississippi and Texas. In particular, the USDA noted the largest month to month decline in yield in Mississippi following excessive rain during October. Before the report, analysts were projecting beans at 3.269 billion bushels, in a range of 3.187 billion to 3.379 billion. The average yield is estimated at an all time high of 43.3 bushels per acre, compared to October’s expectation of 42.4 and the 2008 average of 39.7 bushels per acre. 2009 harvested area is expected to be 76.619 million acres, compared to 2008’s total of 74.681 million acres.

The USDA estimated the 2009 corn crop at 12.921 billion bushels, compared to October’s projection of 13.018 billion and the 2008 total of 12.101 billion bushels. If realized, this would be the second largest crop on record behind 2007. USDA raised yield projections for Minnesota and Wisconsin, while cutting expectations for Illinois, Iowa and Michigan. Pre-report estimates ranged from 12.674 billion to 13.400 billion bushels, with an average of 12.995 billion. The average yield is expected to be around 162.9 bushels per acre, compared to October’s guess of 164.2 and the 2008 average of 153.9 bushels per acre. While that is a decline from October to November, if the projections hold, it’d still be the highest average yield in U.S. history. Harvested area is seen at 79.294 million acres, compared to 78.640 million in 2008.

Corn and soybean production in Brownfield/Waitt states:

Illinois: Corn: 2.065 billion bushels, down 65 million from 2008; average yield of 175 bushels per acre, down 4 from last year; harvested area of 11.800 million bushels, down 100,000 from a year ago; Soybeans: 420.750 million bushels, down 7.89 million from 2008; average yield of 45 bushels per acre, down 2 from last year; harvested area of 9.350 million acres, up 230,000 from a year ago.

Indiana: Corn: 903.040 million bushels, up 29.44 million from 2008; average yield of 166 bushels per acre, up 6 from last year; harvested area of 5.440 million acres, down 20,000 from a year ago; Soybeans: 249.780 million bushels, up 5.43 million bushels from 2008; average yield of 46 bushels per acre, up 1 from last year; harvested area of 5.430 million acres, unchanged from a year ago.

Iowa: Corn: 2.443 billion bushels, up 254 million from 2008; average yield of 183 bushels per acre, up 12 from last year; harvested area of 13.350 million acres, up 550,000 from a year ago; Soybeans: 486.030 million bushels, up 36.375 million from 2008; average yield of 51 bushels per acre, up 4.5 from last year; harvested area of 9.530 million acres, down 140,000 from a year ago.

Missouri: Corn: 437.900 million bushels, up 56.3 million from 2008; average yield of 151 bushels per acre, up 7 from last year; harvested area of 2.900 million acres, up 250,000 from a year ago; Soybeans: 233.200 million bushels, up 42.06 million from 2008; average yield of 44 bushels per acre, up 6 from last year; harvested area of 5.300 million acres, up 270,000 from a year ago.

Nebraska: Corn: 1.584 billion bushels, up 190 million from 2008; average yield of 178 bushels per acre, up 15 from last year; harvested area of 8.900 million acres, up 350,000 from a year ago; Soybeans: 247 million bushels, up 21.01 million from 2008; average yield of 52 bushels per acre, up 5.5 from last year; harvested area of 4.750 million acres, down 110,000 from a year ago.

South Carolina: Corn: 32.450 million bushels, up 11.975 million from 2008; average yield of 110 bushels per acre, up 45 from last year; harvested area of 295,000 acres, down 20,000 from a year ago; Soybeans: 15.120 million bushels, down 1.84 million from 2008; average yield of 27 bushels per acre, down 5 from last year; harvested area of 560,000 acres, up 30,000 from a year ago.

South Dakota: Corn: 690 million bushels, up 104.8 million from 2008; average yield of 150 bushels per acre, up 17 from last year; harvested area of 4.600 million acres, up 200,000 from a year ago; Soybeans: 172.200 million bushels, up 34.16 million from 2008; average yield of 41 bushels per acre, up 7 from last year; harvested area of 4.200 million acres, up 140,000 from a year ago.

Wisconsin: Corn: 423.400 million bushels, up 28.84 million from 2008; average yield of 146 bushels per acre, up 9 from last year; harvested area of 2.900 million acres, up 20,000 from a year ago; Soybeans: 66.830 million bushels, up 11.18 million from 2008; average yield of 41 bushels per acre, up 6 from last year; harvested area of 1.630 million acres, up 40,000 from a year ago.