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USDA winter wheat guess higher

The USDA has increased its expectations for the 2023 winter wheat crop.

Production is projected at 1.206 billion bushels, a jump of 6% from the June guess following a higher yield estimate, up 2 bushels per acre to 46.9, and 9% more than in 2022, on a rise in acreage. 2023 harvested area is seen at 25.7 million acres, compared to 23.459 million a year ago.

The hard and soft red winter crops are both up on the month and the year despite the widespread drought in the central and southern U.S. Plains and the mixed, but largely favorable, conditions in the Eastern Midwest and southeast. By class, HRW production is projected at 577.215 million bushels with SRW at 422.275 million, while combined white winter wheat production is pegged at 206.945 million bushels, which is significantly lower than last year.

The spring wheat crop estimate is 478.61 million bushels, 1% below a year ago on an expected yield of 45.2 bushels per acre, compared to 46.2 in 2022. Harvested area is seen at 10.595 million acres, compared to 10.44 million the year before.

The numbers are highly subject to change.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production estimates is out August 11th.

Comparison for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Winter Wheat: 9.075 million bushels, compared to 7.95 million in 2022; Yield: 55 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a month ago and 53 a year ago; Harvested Area: 165,000 acres, compared to 150,000 last year

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 65.52 million bushels, compared to 44.24 million in 2022; Yield: Record 84 bushels per acre, compared to 78 a month ago and 79 a year ago; Harvested Area: 780,000 acres, compared to 560,000 last year

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 27.36 million bushels, compared to 19.44 million in 2022; Yield: 76 bushels per acre, compared to 77 a month ago and 81 a year ago; Harvested Area: 360,000 acres, compared to 240,000 last year

Kansas: Winter Wheat: 208 million bushels, compared to 244.2 million in 2022; Yield: 32 bushels per acre, compared to 29 a month ago and 37 a year ago; Harvested Area: 6.5 million acres, compared to 6.6 million last year

Kentucky: Winter Wheat: 40.02 million bushels, compared to 30 million in 2022; Yield: Record 87 bushels per acre, compared to 78 a month ago and 80 a year ago;
Harvested Area: 460,000 acres, compared to 375,000 last year

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 41.89 million bushels, compared to 34.445 million in 2022; Yield: 71 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 83 a year ago;
Harvested Area: 590,000 acres, compared to 415,000 last year

Minnesota: Spring Wheat: 59.4 million bushels, compared to 73.81 million in 2022; Yield: 54 bushels per acre, compared to 61 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.1 million acres, compared to 1.21 million last year

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 40.96 million bushels, compared to 24.6 million in 2022; Yield: 64 bushels per acre, compared to 60 a month ago and 60 a year ago; Harvested Area: 640,000 acres, compared to 410,000 last year

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 33.15 million bushels, compared to 26.24 million in 2022; Yield: 39 bushels per acre, compared to 34 a month ago and 32 a year ago; Harvested Area: 850,000 acres, compared to 820,000 last year

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 41.8 million bushels, compared to 36.735 million in 2022; Yield: 76 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 79 a year ago; Harvested Area: 550,000 acres, compared to 465,000 last year

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 31.5 million bushels, compared to 37.96 million in 2022; Yield: 42 bushels per acre, compared to 46 a month ago and 52 a year ago; Harvested Area: 750,000 acres, compared to 730,000 last year

Spring Wheat: 23.8 million bushels, compared to 33.6 million in 2022; Yield: 34 bushels per acre, compared to 48 a year ago; Harvested Area: 700,000 acres, unchanged from last year

Tennessee: Winter Wheat: 29.25 million bushels, compared to 24.455 million in 2022; Yield: Record 75 bushels per acre, compared to 71 a month ago and 73 a year ago; Harvested Area: 390,000 acres, compared to 335,000 last year

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 16.17 million bushels, compared to 18.72 million in 2022; Yield: 66 bushels per acre, compared to 71 a month ago and 78 a year ago; Harvested Area: 245,000 acres, compared to 240,000 last year

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