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USDA tightens U.S. corn ending stocks estimate

The USDA has lowered the U.S. ending stocks estimate for corn.

The department cut the carryover outlook by 150 million bushels to 1.352 billion on increased expectations for feed, ethanol, and export demand. Ahead of the report, the average estimate was 1.346 billion bushels.

Wheat ending stocks were up modestly at 852 million bushels with a lower feed use guess canceling out a cut in imports. Analysts were expecting U.S. wheat ending stocks to be around 849 million bushels.

Soybeans were unchanged at 120 million bushels as a higher export projection was canceled out by lower crush demand, reduced seed use, and a decline for residual use. Pre-report estimates had a fairly narrow range, with an average guess of 119 million bushels.

Globally, the USDA raised soybean ending stocks, with a bigger production guess for Brazil, while tightening corn and wheat supplies, largely on demand expectations.

The 2020/21 marketing year runs through the end of May for wheat, the end of August for corn and soybeans, and the end of September for soybean products.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out May 12th.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected at 852 million bushels, compared to 836 million in March and 1.028 billion for 2019/20. The USDA lowered imports 10 million bushels to 110 million for a total supply of 2.964 billion bushels, while feed and residual was down 25 million bushels at 100 million, putting domestic use at 1.128 billion and total use at 2.113 billion. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $5 per bushel, compared to $5 a month ago and $4.58 for the previous marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks are expected to be 1.352 billion bushels, compared to 1.502 billion last month and 1.919 billion last marketing year. The UDSA raised feed and residual use 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion, with food, seed, and industrial use up 25 million bushels to 6.4 billion, all of that to ethanol use at 4.975 billion bushels, for domestic use of 12.1 billion, and increased exports 75 million bushels to 2.675 billion, for total use of 14.775 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.30 per bushel, compared to $4.30 in March and $3.56 for 2019/20.

2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stock are pegged at 120 million bushels, compared to 120 million a month ago and 525 million in the prior marketing year. The USDA lowered crush use 10 million bushels to 2.19 billion, raised exports 30 million bushels to 2.28 billion, while reducing seed use 2 million bushels to 102 million, and slashing residual use 17 million bushels to 4 million, leaving total use unchanged at 4.575 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $11.25 per bushel, compared to $11.15 last month and $8.57 last marketing year.

2020/21 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 295.52 million tons, compared to 301.19 million in March and 300.04 million for 2019/20. The USDA did lower production slightly on decreased expectations for the European Union/United Kingdom, Japan, and selected Middle Eastern nations, against a modestly increase for Argentina. Domestic feed use is estimated at 156.66 million tons, compared to 152.98 million a month ago, and exports are projected at 198.91 million tons, compared to 197.69 million last month.

2020/21 world corn ending stocks are estimated at 283.85 million tons, compared to 287.67 million a month ago and 302.99 million in the previous marketing year. The USDA raised production slightly to 1.137 billion tons, with higher guess for the European Union/United Kingdom cancelling out declines for Argentina and southeast Asia. Domestic feed use is expected to be 731.27 million tons, compared to 725.25 million last month, with exports of 187.26 million tons, compared to 186.55 million in March. The USDA left exports for Argentina and Brazil unchanged, lowered Ukraine a million tons to 23 million, and left imports by China steady at 24 million tons.

2020/21 world soybean ending stocks are anticipated to be 86.87 million tons, compared to 83.74 million last month and 96.38 million last marketing year. The USDA hiked production to 363.19 million tons on an improved outlook for Brazil, which canceled out lower expectations for Paraguay, the European Union/United Kingdom, and Mexico. Domestic crush use is projected at 322.47 million tons, compared to 323.58 million in March, with exports of 170.91 million tons, compared to 169.72 million a month ago. The USDA did increase export expectations for Brazil, while decreasing the outlooks for Argentina and Paraguay. Imports by China were unchanged at 100 million tons, even with a reduced crush use guess.

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