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USDA supply, demand shift to shake up market

USDA’s supply and demand and production estimates could be a mixed bag in Friday’s reports.

University of Missouri ag economist Ben Brown says traders seem to be expecting USDA’s yield estimate for corn to come in around 176 bushels an acre with some private estimates under 170 bushels.

But he tells Brownfield, he’s not there yet…

“Losses due to drought in the Western Corn Belt are largely being offset with good yields in the Eastern Corn Belt. The region that I may be starting to become very concerned about is the dry pocket that’s forming over southern Iowa.”

Brown said the general expectation is a trendline yield for soybeans.

Meanwhile, he said U.S. demand expectations could strengthen because of weak domestic commodity prices in Ukraine paired with a shipping backlog incentivizing Ukrainian growers to plant less.

“They’re losing money by planting and so, we’re moving out of this, ‘We can’t physically get rid of the old crop,’ to now, ‘We can, but no one wants it,” They want our new crop, but we can’t just, like, play Trouble and jump over the peg in front of us.’”

The USDA reports are out at noon Eastern/11 Central.