News

USDA sees mostly higher meat production in 2023

The USDA is projecting larger pork, broiler, and turkey production in 2023 than in 2022.

Pork is estimated at 27.48 billion pounds, up 135 million from January and potentially 484 million more than 2022 on pig crop and farrowing intention numbers, with an average barrow and gilt price of $68 per hundredweight, $1 more than a month ago, but $3.21 less than the 2022 guess, with month-to-month cuts for 2022 and 2023 imports and consumption, while 2023 exports are expected to be a little bit above 2022.

Turkey is seen at 5.56 billion pounds, 10 million more than last month and more than 300 million above the 2022 estimate on hatchery data, with an average price of $1.60 per pound, $0.07 above the December guess and $0.055 higher than the 2022 projection, with no change to 2023 imports, smaller exports, and higher domestic consumption.

Beef production this year is expected to be 26.445 billion pounds, which is 170 million higher than the December guess due to slaughter data, but would be almost 2 billion less than 2022 on questions about heifer retention. The average steer price for this year is pegged at $158.50 per hundredweight, $2.50 more than a month ago and $14.10 above the estimated year ago average, with 2023 imports and consumption up against steady exports.

Broiler production is expected to be 46.9 billion pounds, 25 million under a month ago on hatchery numbers, but potentially 655 million more than a year ago. The average estimated price is $1.285 per pound, down $0.025 from last month and $0.12 under last year’s average, with no month-to-month 2023 changes for imports, exports, or consumption.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out February 9^th.