News

USDA raises U.S. wheat stocks, lowers soybeans

The USDA raised the ending stocks projection for U.S. wheat, while lowering the estimate for soybeans and leaving corn unchanged on the month.

Wheat came out at 648 million bushels, up 20 million from January, with the USDA cutting expectations for food, seed, and export demand. The average estimated farm price for wheat is $7.30 per bushel, up $.15.

Soybeans are pegged at 325 million bushels, down 25 million following an increase in crush demand, possibly in response to a lower production estimate for Argentina, the world’s biggest exporter of soybean products. The average estimated farm price for beans is $13 per bushel, $.40 higher.

Corn ending stocks held at 1.54 billion bushels, unchanged, with no adjustments to the balance sheet. The average estimated farm price for corn is $5.45 per bushel, steady with last month.

Globally, corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks were down from January.

The 2021/22 marketing year runs through the end of May for wheat, the end of August for beans and corn, and the end of September for soybean products.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out Wednesday, March 9^th.

Breakdowns of selected supply and demand tables:

2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks are expected to be 648 million bushels, compared to 628 million in January and 845 million for 2020/21. The USDA lowered food use by 3 million bushels to 959 million and seed use by 2 million bushels to 64 million, putting domestic use at 1.133 billion bushels, and slashed exports by 15 million bushels to 810 million, for total use of 1.943 billion bushels. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $7.30 per bushel, compared to $7.15 a month ago and $5.05 a year ago.

2021/22 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.54 billion bushels, steady with last month and up from the 1.235-billion-bushel total last marketing year. There were no changes to the balance sheet. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $5.45 per bushel, unchanged from January and above the 2020/21 average of $4.53.

2021/22 U.S. soybean ending stocks are pegged at 325 million bushels, compared to 350 million a month ago and 257 million in the previous marketing year. The USDA raised crush use 25 million bushels to 2.215 billion, taking total use to 4.382 billion bushels. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $13 per bushel, compared to $12.60 last month and $10.80 last marketing year.

For soybean products, the USDA raised soybean oil ending stocks to 2.076 billion pounds, compared to 1.916 billion in January, with higher production and imports cancelling out increased food, feed, and industrial use. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $.66 per pound, compared to $.65 a month ago and $.5687 in the prior marketing year. Soybean meal ending stocks are projected at 400,000 short tons, unchanged from last month and up from the 341,000 at the end of last marketing year. The USDA raised production and export use by equal amounts. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $410 per short ton, compared to $375 in January and $392.31 for 2020/21.

2021/22 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 278.21 million tons, compared to 279.95 million a month ago. Production is seen at 776.42 million tons, down just over 2 million, with reduced expectations for Brazil, Kazakhstan, the United Kingdom, and selected Middle Eastern nations. Domestic feed use is pegged at 160.59 million tons, compared to 159.56 million last month, with exports of 206.69 million tons, compared to 204.4 million in January. The USDA ratcheted up export expectations for Argentina and Canada, while lowering their guess for Ukraine. Russia was steady at 35 million tons.

2021/22 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 302.22 million tons, compared to 204.2 million last month. Global production is projected at 1.205 billion tons, more than a million under the prior guess, on a decline for Brazil. Domestic feed use is estimated at 751.86 million tons, compared to 751.11 million in January, with exports of 203.67 million tons, compared to 204.2 million a month ago, but with no adjustments for the major exporters. Imports by China were unchanged at 26 million tons.

2021/22 world soybean ending stocks are pegged at 92.83 million tons, compared to 95.2 million in January. The global crop is now seen at 363.86 million tons, a decline of almost 10 million on reduced outlooks for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. Domestic crush use is expected to be 320.24 million tons, compared to 325.72 million a month ago, with exports of 165.03 million tons, compared to 170.74 million last month. The USDA lowered export projections for South America and cut imports by China 3 million tons to 100 million.