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USDA raises U.S. soybean ending stocks estimates

The USDA has cut old crop U.S. corn ending stocks, while raising the outlook for soybeans.

Old crop corn ending stocks are seen at 1.107 billion bushels, down 150 million on the month due to increased demand for export and ethanol use. That pulled new crop corn ending stocks down to 1.357 billion bushels, with no other adjustments to the balance sheet.

Old crop soybean ending stocks came out at 135 million bushels, up 15 million, because of reduced domestic crush demand, which pushed the new crop ending stocks guess 15 million bushels higher to 155 million.

Wheat ending stocks for the recently ended marketing year were reported at 852 million bushels, 20 million less than in May following an increase in the export use guess. That lowered the new crop ending stocks guess to by 4 million bushels to 770 million, cancelling out a bigger crop production estimate.

Globally, the USDA reduced the corn production estimate and Brazil, while raising the projection for Brazil’s soybean crop. The USDA left old and new crop corn and soybean import estimates for China unchanged. The old and new crop soybean export guesses for Argentina and Brazil were steady, while old crop corn exports were down on the month, with new crop holding.

The 2021/22 marketing year for wheat started June 1st, 2021, while 2020/21 for corn and soybeans runs through the end of August and the current marketing year for soybean products runs through the end of September.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out July 12th.

Month to month changes for domestic balance sheets:

2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 852 million bushels, compared to 872 million in May and 1.028 billion for 2019/20. The USDA raised exports 20 million bushels to 985 million for total use of 2.108 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $5.05 per bushel, compared to $5.05 a month ago and $4.58 the previous marketing year.

2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks are expected to be 770 million bushels, compared to 774 million last month. With the reduction in beginning stocks, or old crop ending stocks, and a 26 million bushel increase in production to 1.898 billion, total supply is seen at 2.875 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was hiked 10 million bushels to 180 million, putting domestic use at 1.205 billion bushels and total use at 2.105 billion. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $6.50 per bushel, unchanged from May.

2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 1.107 billion bushels, compared to 1.257 billion a month ago and 1.919 billion the previous marketing year. The USDA raised ethanol use 75 million bushels to 5.05 billion, putting food, seed, and industrial use at 6.47 billion bushels and total use at 12.17 billion. Exports were increased 75 million bushels to 2.85 billion, for total use of 15.02 billion. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.35 per bushel, compared to $4.35 last month and $3.56 last marketing year.

2021/22 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.357 billion bushels, compared to 1.507 billion in May. Following the reduction in beginning stocks, total supply is seen at 16.122 billion bushels. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $5.70 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago.

2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks are pegged at 135 million bushels, compared to 120 million last month and 525 million last marketing year. The USDA lowered crush demand by 15 million bushels to 2.175 billion, leaving total use at 4.56 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $11.25 per bushel, compared to $11.25 in May and $8.57 for 2019/20.

2021/22 U.S. soybean ending stocks are anticipated at 155 million bushels, compared to 140 million a month ago. Following the higher move for beginning stocks, the total supply is expected to be 4.575 billion bushels. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $13.85 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

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