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USDA raises rice crop estimate, lowers cotton

The USDA has lowered its cotton production estimate while raising the outlook for rice.

The USDA has upland cotton production at 16.5 million bales, a decrease of 1% from September and 14% from 2019 with an average yield of 899 pounds per acre, unchanged from last month and 89 more than last year. All cotton is expected to total 17.045 million bales, with an average yield of 909 pounds per acre and harvested area of 9.005 million acres, compared to 19.913 million bales, 823 pounds per acre, and 11.613 million acres the year before.

Rice is seen at 226.336 million hundredweight, up just over a million from a month ago and more than 40 million above a year ago with an average yield of 7,567 pounds per acre, up 38 pounds on the month and 96 on the year. Harvested area is pegged at 2.991 million acres, compared to 2.472 million in 2019.

U.S. rice stocks were above a month ago at 47.7 million hundredweight on increased production and import guesses and cotton held steady at 7.2 million bales as lower production was canceled out by the USDA zeroing out unaccounted for stocks, while global stocks for both were tighter on demand expectations. Global cotton stocks were reported at 101.13 million bales, down 2.71 million, with lower production against higher domestic and export use. World rice ending stocks are estimated at 179.15 million tons, 5.68 million less than the prior report, with higher production and domestic use against lower imports and exports.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out November 10th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Cotton: 1.3 million bales, compared to 1.506 million in 2019; record average yield of 1,200 pounds per acre, compared to 1,200 a month ago and 1,185 a year ago; harvested area of 520,000 acres, compared to 610,000 last year; Rice: 108.075 million hundredweight, compared to 84.257 million in 2019; average yield of 7,500 pounds per acre, compared to 7,500 a month ago and 7,480 a year ago; harvested area of 1.441 million acres, compared to 1.126 million last year

Missouri: Cotton: 700,000 bales, compared to 915,000 in 2019; average yield of 1,171 pounds per acre, compared to 1,204 a month ago and 1,193 a year ago; harvested area of 287,000 acres, compared to 368,000 last year; Rice: 16.985 million hundredweight, compared to 12.747 million in 2019; average yield of 7,900 pounds per acre, compared to 7,500 a month ago and 7,370 a year ago; harvested area of 215,000 acres, compared to 173,000 last year

Tennessee: Cotton: 610,000 bales, compared to 960,000 in 2019; average yield of 1,065 pounds per acre, compared to 1,135 a month ago and 1,138 a year ago; harvested area of 275,000 acres, compared to 405,000 last year

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