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USDA raises corn crop guess, lowers soybean outlook

The USDA has made a month to month cut in its soybean production estimate, while raising the outlook for corn slightly.

As of November 1st, this year’s U.S. soybean crop is seen at 4.425 billion bushels, 1% less than October following a cut in yield to 51.2 bushels per acre, but 7% more than 2020. Corn is projected at 15.062 billion bushels, up modestly on the month, with a half a bushel increase in average yield to 177 bushels per acre, and 7% higher than a year ago. There were no changes to harvested area estimates. These numbers are subject to change with the U.S. corn and soybean harvests ongoing.

In 2020, U.S. soybean production was 4.216 billion bushels with an average yield of 51 bushels per acre and corn totaled 14.112 billion bushels with an average yield of 171.4 bushels per acre.

The USDA lowered U.S. corn ending stocks due to a bigger ethanol use guess, pushed soybean stocks higher on slower export demand, and raised wheat ending stocks because of flour milling data.

Globally, the USDA cut its outlook for Argentina’s soybean crop, but increased the estimate for Argentina’s corn crop, and while production expectations for Brazil were unchanged, the department did raise Brazil’s soybean export guess, while lowering the import projection for China.

Just after the release of the report, soybean and corn futures turned higher, while wheat built on its earlier gains.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production estimates is out December 9th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Corn: 151.89 million bushels, compared to 111.32 million in 2020; average yield of 183 bushels per acre, compared to 184 both a month ago and a year ago; harvested area of 830,000 acres, compared to 605,000 last year; Soybeans: 150.5 million bushels, compared to 144.2 million in 2020; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 51.5 a year ago; harvested area of 3.01 million acres, compared to 2.8 million last year

Illinois: Corn: 2.236 billion bushels, compared to 2.12 billion in 2020; average yield of 207 bushels per acre, compared to 210 a month ago and 191 a year ago; harvested area of 10.8 million acres, compared to 11.1 million last year; Soybeans: 675.2 million bushels, compared to 615 million in 2020; record average yield of 64 bushels per acre, compared to 64 a month ago and 60 a year ago; harvested area of 10.55 million bushels, compared to 10.25 million last year

Indiana: Corn: 992.25 million bushels, compared to 981.75 million in 2020; record average yield of 189 bushels per acre, compared to 194 a month ago and 187 a year ago; harvested area of 5.25 million acres, steady with last year; Soybeans: 324.33 million bushels, compared to 338.07 million in 2020; average yield of 57 bushels per acre, compared to 60 a month ago and 59 a year ago; harvested area of 5.69 million acres, compared to 5.73 million last year

Iowa: Corn: 2.503 billion bushels, compared to 2.283 billion in 2020; average yield of 201 bushels per acre, compared to 201 a month ago and 177 a year ago; harvested area of 12.45 million acres, compared to 12.9 million last year; Soybeans: 601.2 million bushels, compared to 505.98 million in 2020; record average yield of 60 bushels per acre, compared to 61 a month ago and 54 a year ago; harvested area of 10.02 million acres, compared to 9.37 million last year

Kansas: Corn: 736.7 million bushels, compared to 766.48 million in 2020; average yield of 139 bushels per acre, compared to 140 a month ago and 134 a year ago; harvested area of 5.3 million acres, compared to 5.72 million last year; Soybeans: 196.8 million bushels, compared to 194.75 million in 2020; average yield of 41 bushels per acre, compared to 42 a month ago and 41 a year ago; harvested area of 4.8 million acres, compared to 4.75 million last year

Michigan: Corn: 344.75 million bushels, compared to 304.47 million in 2020; record average yield of 175 bushels per acre, compared to 171 a month ago and 153 a year ago; harvested area of 1.97 million acres, compared to 1.99 million last year; Soybeans: 107 million bushels, compared to 105.12 million in 2020; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 48 a year ago; harvested area of 2.14 million acres, compared to 2.19 million last year

Minnesota: Corn: 1.451 billion bushels, compared to 1.434 billion in 2020; average yield of 186 bushels per acre, compared to 178 a month ago and 191 a year ago; harvested area of 7.8 million acres, compared to 7.51 million last year; Soybeans: 373.87 million bushels, compared to 369 million in 2020; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 50 a year ago; harvested area of 7.63 million acres, compared to 7.38 million last year

Missouri: Corn: 540.8 million bushels, compared to 560.88 million in 2020; average yield of 160 bushels per acre, compared to 164 a month ago and 171 a year ago; harvested area of 3.38 million acres, compared to 3.28 million last year; Soybeans: 282.5 million bushels, compared to 396.31 million in 2020; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 51 a year ago; harvested area of 5.65 million acres, compared to 5.81 million last year

Nebraska: Corn: 1.834 billion bushels, compared to 1.78 billion in 2020; average yield of 191 bushels per acre, compared to 190 a month ago and 180 a year ago; harvested area of 9.6 million acres, compared to 9.89 million last year; Soybeans: 344.1 million bushels, compared to 299.28 million a year ago; record average yield of 62 bushels per acre, compared to 61 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 5.55 million acres, compared to 5.16 million last year

Ohio: Corn: 635.44 million bushels, compared to 564.3 million in 2020; record average yield of 188 bushels per acre, compared to 188 a month ago and 171 a year ago; harvested area of 3.38 million acres, compared to 3.3 million last year; Soybeans: 270.48 million bushels, compared to 270.6 million in 2020; record average yield of 56 bushels per acre, compared to 58 a month ago and 55 a year ago; harvested area of 4.83 million acres, compared to 4.92 million last year

South Dakota: Corn: 774.05 million bushels, compared to 720.9 million in 2020; average yield of 137 bushels per acre, compared to 133 a month ago and 162 a year ago; harvested area of 5.65 million acres, compared to 4.45 million last year; Soybeans: 223.45 million bushels, compared to 226.32 million in 2020; average yield of 41 bushels per acre, compared to 40 a month ago and 46 a year ago; harvested area of 5.45 million acres, compared to 4.92 million last year

Tennessee: Corn: 165.87 million bushels, compared to 138.55 million in 2020; average yield of 171 bushels per acre, compared to 170 both a month ago and a year ago; harvested area of 970,000 acres, compared to 815,000 last year; Soybeans: 73.5 million bushels, compared to 81 million in 2020; record average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 50 a year ago; harvested area of 1.47 million acres, compared to 1.62 million last year

Wisconsin: Corn: 505.68 million bushels, compared to 506.89 million in 2020; average yield of 172 bushels per acre, compared to 172 a month ago and 173 a year ago; harvested area of 2.94 million acres, compared to 2.93 million last year; Soybeans: 111.78 million bushels, compared to 103.48 million in 2020; average yield of 54 bushels per acre, compared to 54 a month ago and 52 a year ago; harvested area of 2.07 million acres, compared to 1.99 million last year

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