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USDA raises 2019, 2020 red meat, poultry production

The USDA projects a strong end to red meat and poultry production in 2019 and even bigger protein production in 2020. The higher red meat and poultry guesses for this year were due to current production data, with the UDSA also raising the average expected annual price outlooks for steers and turkeys, while leaving the price projections for barrows and gilts and broilers unchanged. For 2020, total red meat and poultry were up more than a billion pounds on the month, with a big jump in broiler production cancelling out a slight decrease in beef. The current price projections for next year are steady to higher than this year.

The USDA’s November red meat and poultry production numbers are out later this month.

2019 U.S. beef production is pegged at 27.136 billion pounds, up 100 million on the month, with an average expected steer price of $117 per hundredweight, $1 higher than in November. Imports were up from last month, while exports were down, leaving ending stocks at 625 million pounds, 25 million less than a month ago. Per capita consumption is seen at 57.8 pounds per person, up 0.5. 2020 production is estimated at 27.515 billion pounds, compared to 27.515 billion a month ago, with an average expected price of $117 per hundredweight, compared to $116 in November. The import guess was raised, but is expected to be below 2019 levels, while exports were unchanged, for potential ending stocks of 625 million pounds. Per capita consumption was steady at 57.4 pounds per person.

2019 U.S. pork production is projected at 27.694 billion pounds, compared to 27.620 billion in November, with an average estimated price of $48 per hundredweight, steady with last month. Imports were unchanged while exports were lowered, putting expected ending stocks at 550 million pounds. Per capita consumption is pegged at 52.7 pounds per person, an increase of 0.6. 2020 pork production is seen at 28.68 billion pounds, unchanged from November, with an average estimated price of $.55 per hundredweight, $2 lower. Imports for the coming year were steady and exports were down, leaving ending stocks at 580 million pounds. Per capita consumption is expected to be 52.6 pounds per person, 0.4 higher.

2019 U.S. broiler production is expected to be 43.839 billion pounds, compared to 43.738 billion a month ago, with an average expected price of $.885 per pound, steady on the month. Imports were steady and exports were higher for ending stocks of 910 million pounds. Per capita consumption is projected at 94.9 pounds per person, 0.2 higher. 2020 broiler production is pegged at 45.250 billion pounds, compared to 44.535 billion the month before, with an average estimated price of $.89 per pounds, down $.02. Imports were unchanged, while exports were higher, for estimated ending stocks of 910 million pounds. Per capita consumption is seen at 97.1 pounds per person, an increase of 1.3.

2019 turkey production was unchanged on the month at 5.889 billion pounds, with an average estimated price of $.89 per pound, up $.05. Imports were unchanged and exports were modestly higher, leaving ending stocks at 260 million pounds. Per capita consumption was steady with November at 16.1 pounds per person. 2020 production is seen at 5.925 billion pounds and the average price projection is $.90 per pound, both steady with last month. Imports were unchanged and exports were up, leaving expected ending stocks at 285 pounds. Per capita consumption is estimated at 15.8 pounds per person, down 0.1.