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USDA raises 2019/20 soybean ending stocks, lowers corn

The USDA increased its 2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks estimate, while tightening the balance sheets for corn and wheat. Soybeans are now pegged at 475 million bushels, compared to 460 million a month ago and 913 million a year ago, following reductions in production and crush use. The average farm price was unchanged from October at $9.00 per bushel. Corn is estimated at 1.91 billion bushels, 19 million less than last month and potentially more than 200 million below last marketing year, with lower production, feed, ethanol, and export projections. The average farm price was up $.05 on the month at $3.85 per bushel. Wheat is now seen at 1.014 billion bushels, a decrease of 29 million on the month and 66 million on the marketing year, with declines for production and most of the major use categories. The average farm price was down $.10 at $4.60 per bushel.

Globally, the USDA raised the already record ending stocks estimate for wheat, increased soybeans slightly, and lowered the outlook for corn. Corn and soybean production estimates for Argentina and Brazil were unchanged, the corn export guess for Brazil and soybean projection for Argentina were higher, the USDA did lower soybean exports for Brazil, and left soybean imports for China steady with October.

The 2019/20 marketing year started June 1st for wheat and September 1st for corn and soybeans.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out December 10th.

Breakdowns for selected supply and demand tables:

Wheat came out at 1.014 billion bushels, compared to 1.043 billion in October and 1.08 billion for 2018/19. With production now pegged at 1.92 billion bushels, total supply is seen at 3.12 billion. Food use was reduced 5 million bushels to 955 million and seed use was down 7 million bushels at 61 million, leaving domestic use at 1.156 billion bushels and total use at 2.106 billion. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $4.60 per bushel, compared to $4.70 a month ago and $5.16 for the previous marketing year.

Corn was reported at 1.91 billion bushels, compared to 1.929 billion last month and 2.114 billion last marketing year. The USDA cut production to 13.661 billion bushels, putting the total supply at 15.825 billion bushels. The feed and residual and ethanol use estimated were down on the month for domestic use of 12.065 billion bushels and export use was also reduced, leaving total use at 13.915 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $3.85 per bushel, compared to $3.80 in October and $3.61 for 2018/19.

Soybeans were pegged at 475 million bushels, compared to 460 million a month ago and 913 million in the previous marketing year. The production guess was down slightly on the month, essentially steady, leaving the total supply at 4.483 billion bushels. The USDA lowered crush use, while leaving exports unchanged, taking total use to 4.008 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $9.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month, and, if realized, up from the $8.48 last year. The USDA left the soybean oil for biodiesel use guess unchanged at 8.5 billion pounds.

World wheat ending stocks are seen at 288.28 million tons, compared to 287.8 million in October. Global production was up slightly at 765.55 million tons, with lowered expectations for Argentina, Australia, and the U.S. canceled out by larger projections for the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, and selected countries in the Mideast. Domestic feed use is estimated at 148.47 million tons, steady with last month, and exports are pegged at 180.68 million tons, compared to 179.68 million a month ago. Lower exports for Argentina and Australia were offset by increased expectations for the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine.

Global corn ending stocks are expected to be 295.96 million tons, compared to 302.55 million last month. The world crop was lowered less than 2 million tons to 1.102 billion, on smaller outlooks for the U.S., European Union, Ukraine, and Mexico, which canceled out an increase for Russia. Domestic feed use is pegged at 694.89 million tons, compared to 693.86 million a month ago, while exports are projected at 167.05 million tons, compared to 166.59 million in October. Export estimates were raised for Brazil and Russia, lowered for the U.S. and Mexico.

World soybean ending stocks are estimated at 95.42 million tons, compared to 95.21 million a month ago. The world crop is expected to be 336.56 million tons, down on the month, primarily on the lower U.S. estimate. Argentina and Brazil were left unchanged at 53 million and 123 million tons, respectively. Domestic crush use is seen at 302.71 million tons, compared to 305.21 million in October, with exports at 149.75 million tons, compared to 149.39 million last month. The USDA raised exports for Argentina, but reduced Brazil slightly. Imports for China were unchanged at 85 million tons.

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