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USDA raises 2016 soybean crop estimate

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The USDA raised its 2016 soybean production estimate while lowering the outlook for corn. Conditions across key U.S. growing areas have varied widely during planting, the growing season, and the early part of the harvest, but the USDA is expecting record corn and soybean production because of increased yields and higher acreage totals.

Soybeans are seen at 4.269 billion bushels, up 2% from September and 9% from 2015 with an average yield of 51.4 bushels per acre, 0.8 above a month ago and 3.4 more than a year ago. The USDA’s expecting record soybean yields in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The USDA anticipates pod counts being up more than 100 per square feet in Missouri, Nebraska, and North Dakota, and down more than 50 per 18 square feet in Kansas and Ohio. Harvested area is expected to be 83.407 million acres, compared to 81.732 million in 2015.

Corn is projected at 15.057 billion bushels, a little bit less than last month, but 11% more than last year, with an average yield of 173.4 bushels per acre, down 1 on the month, but up 5 on the year. Record corn yields are forecast in Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, North Dakota, South Carolina, Washington, and Wisconsin. The USDA says it’s expecting the third highest number of ears on record in the objective yield states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Harvested area is seen at 86.836 million acres, compared to 80.749 million in 2015.

Current USDA projections for corn and soybeans in Brownfield states:

Illinois: Corn: 2.323 billion bushels, compared to 2.013 billion in 2015; average yield of 202 bushels per acre, compared to 200 a month ago and 175 a year ago; harvested area of 11.5 million acres, unchanged from last year; Soybeans: 623.1 million bushels, compared to 544.32 million in 2015; average yield of 62 bushels per acre, compared to 61 a month ago and 56 a year ago; harvested area of 10.05 million acres, compared to 9.72 million last year

Indiana: Corn: 957.57 million bushels, compared to 822 million in 2015; average yield of 177 bushels per acre, compared to 185 a month ago and 150 a year ago; harvested area of 5.41 million acres, compared to 5.48 million last year; Soybeans: 335.12 million bushels, compared to 275 million in 2015; average yield of 59 bushels per acre, compared to 58 a month ago and 50 a year ago; harvested area of 5.68 million acres, compared to 5.5 million last year

Iowa: Corn: 2.673 billion bushels, compared to 2.506 billion in 2015; average yield of 198 bushels per acre, compared to 196 a month ago and 192 a year ago; harvested area of 13.5 million acres, compared to 13.05 million last year; Soybeans: 551 million bushels, compared to 553.7 million in 2015; average yield of 58 bushels per acre, compared to 58 a month ago and 56.5 a year ago; harvested area of 9.5 million acres, compared to 9.8 million last year

Michigan: Corn: 334.8 million bushels, compared to 335.34 million in 2015; average yield of 155 bushels per acre, compared to 157 a month ago and 162 a year ago; harvested area of 2.16 million acres, compared to 2.07 million last year; Soybeans: 98.23 million bushels, compared to 98.98 million in 2015; average yield of 47 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a month ago and 49 a year ago; harvested area of 2.09 million acres, compared to 2.02 million last year

Minnesota: Corn: 1.488 billion bushels, compared to 1.429 billion in 2015; average yield of 186 bushels per acre, compared to 184 a month ago and 188 a year ago; harvested area of 8 million acres, compared to 7.6 million last year; Soybeans: 369.95 million bushels, compared to 377.5 million in 2015; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 50 a year ago; harvested area of 7.55 million acres, unchanged from last year

Missouri: Corn: 585.75 million bushels, compared to 437.36 million in 2015; average yield of 165 bushels per acre, compared to 165 month ago and 142 a year ago; harvested area of 3.55 million acres, compared to 3.08 million last year; Soybeans: 277.5 million bushels, compared to 181.035 million in 2015; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 40.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.55 million acres, compared to 4.47 million last year

Nebraska: Corn: 1.720 billion bushels, compared to 1.693 billion in 2015; average yield of 181 bushels per acre, compared to 184 a month ago and 185 a year ago; harvested area of 9.5 million acres, compared to 9.15 million last year; Soybeans: 314.15 million bushels, compared to 305.66 million in 2015; average yield of 61 bushels per acre, compared to 59 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 5.15 million acres, compared to 5.27 million last year

Ohio: Corn: 526.4 million bushels, compared to 498.78 million in 2015; average yield of 160 bushels per acre, compared to 162 a month ago and 153 a year ago; harvested area of 3.29 million acres, compared to 3.26 million last year; Soybeans: 256.52 million bushels, compared to 237 million in 2015; average yield of 53 bushels per acre, compared to 53 a month ago and 50 a year ago; harvested area of 4.84 million acres, compared to 4.74 million last year

South Dakota: Corn: 755.45 million bushels, compared to 799.77 million in 2015; average yield of 145 bushels per acre, compared to 142 a month ago and 159 a year ago; harvested area of 5.21 million acres, compared to 5.03 million last year; Soybeans: 237.82 million bushels, compared to 235.52 million in 2015; average yield of 46 bushels per acre, compared to 43 a month ago and 46 a year ago; harvested area of 5.17 million acres, compared to 5.12 million last year

Wisconsin: Corn: 548.7 million bushels, compared to 492 million in 2015; average yield of 177 bushels per acre, compared to 175 a month ago and 164 a year ago; harvested area of 3.1 million acres, compared to 3 million last year; Soybeans: 101.4 million bushels, compared to 92.565 million in 2015; average yield of 52 bushels per acre, compared to 52 a month ago and 49.5 a year ago; harvested area of 1.95 million acres, compared to 1.87 million last year

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