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USDA lowers wheat production outlooks

The USDA’s projections for what was already expected to be a smaller wheat crop continue to shrink.

The department has winter wheat production at 1.218 billion bushels, 2% lower than in June on a reduction from 52.1 bushels per acre to 52.0 in average yield based on harvest results and down 7% from 2019 with planted area the lowest on record. That includes a 4% month to month decrease for hard red winter wheat to 710.306 million bushels and a 6% drop in soft red winter wheat at 280.309 million, cancelling out a 1% increase for white winter to a combined 196.217 million bushels. Harvested area this year is seen at 23.439 million acres. In 2019, winter wheat production was 1.304 billion bushels with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre on harvested area of 24.327 million acres.

Spring wheat, non-durum production is seen at 550.225 million bushels, 2% lower than a year ago, most of that hard red spring at 502.183 million bushels, which is expected to have a year to year decline of 4%. This year’s average yield is estimated at 46.6 bushels per acre with harvested area of 11.795 million acres, compared to 48.2 bushels per acre and 11.660 million acres, respectively, in 2019.

New crop wheat ending stocks are expected to be 942 million bushels, up from a month ago, as the smaller production estimate was mostly canceled out by higher beginning stocks and a lower feed use projection.

The 2020/21 marketing year for wheat started June 1st.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out August 12th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Winter Wheat: 4.2 million bushels, compared to 2.6 million in 2019; average yield of 56 bushels per acre, compared to 56 a month ago and 52 a year ago; harvested area of 75,000 acres, compared to 50,000 last year

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 34 million bushels, compared to 36.85 million in 2019; average yield of 68 bushels per acre, compared to 73 a month ago and 67 a year ago; harvested area of 500,000 acres, compared to 550,000 last year

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 21.7 million bushels, compared to 16.12 million in 2019; average yield of 70 bushels per acre, compared to 71 a month ago and 62 a year ago; harvested area of 310,000 acres, compared to 260,000 last year

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 38.4 million bushels, compared to 34.08 million in 2019; average yield of 80 bushels per acre, compared to 81 a month ago and 71 a year ago; harvested area of 480,000 acres, unchanged from last year

Minnesota: Spring Wheat: 71.82 million bushels, compared to 79.8 million in 2019; average yield of 57 bushels per acre, compared to 57 a year ago; harvested area of 1.26 million acres, compared to 1.4 million last year

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 24.57 million bushels, steady with 2019; average yield of 63 bushels per acre, compared to 65 a month ago and 63 a year ago; harvested area of 390,000 acres, unchanged from last year

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 40.8 million bushels, compared to 55.29 million in 2019; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a month ago and 57 a year ago; harvested area of 850,000 acres, compared to 970,000 last year

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 36 million bushels, compared to 21.56 million in 2019; average yield of 75 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 56 a year ago; harvested area of 480,000 acres, compared to 385,000 last year

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 29.58 million bushels, compared to 40.04 million in 2019; average yield of 51 bushels per acre, compared to 52 a month ago and 52 a year ago; harvested area of 580,000 acres, compared to 770,000 last year; Spring Wheat: 33.415 million bushels, compared to 26.015 million in 2019; average yield of 41 bushels per acre, compared to 43 a year ago; harvested area of 815,000 acres, compared to 605,000 last year

Tennessee: Winter Wheat: 14.03 million bushels, compared to 14.405 million in 2019; average yield of 61 bushels per acre, compared to 66 a month ago and 67 a year ago; harvested area of 230,000 acres, compared to 215,000 last year

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 8.4 million bushels, compared to 9.6 million in 2019; average yield of 70 bushels per acre, compared to 71 a month ago and 64 a year ago; harvested area of 120,000 acres, compared to 150,000 last year

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