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USDA lowers U.S. corn, soybean ending stocks

The USDA has lowered domestic ending stocks projections for corn and soybeans.

Corn ending stocks are seen at 1.502 billion bushels, larger than expected but still down 50 million on the month because of an increase in exports. Soybeans are pegged at 120 million bushels, close to pre-report estimates and 20 million less than last month, also on an increase in exports. The U.S. wheat balance sheet was unchanged from January, with ending stocks at 836 million bushels.

Globally, corn ending stocks were up modestly, with no changes for South America, but the USDA did raise the import guess for China. World soybean ending stocks were slightly lower, also with no changes to South American production or exports. World wheat ending stocks were slashed, but production was up modestly, even with no adjustments to crop estimates for Russia, Ukraine, Canada, or Australia.

Just after the numbers were released, soybean futures moved down from the session highs, while corn and wheat turned lower.

The 2020/21 marketing year started June 1st, 2020 for wheat, September 1st, 2020 for corn and soybeans, and October 1st, 2020 for soybean products.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out March 9^th.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are pegged at 836 million bushels, compared to 836 million in January and 1.028 billion for 2019/20. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $5 per bushel, compared to $4.85 a month ago and $4.58 for the prior marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks are expected to be 1.502 billion bushels, compared to 1.552 billion last month and 1.919 billion last marketing year. The UDSA raised exports 50 million bushels to 2.6 billion, taking total use to 14.625 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.30 per bushel, compared to $4.20 in January and $3.56 for 2019/20.

2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 120 million bushels, compared to 140 million a month ago and 525 million the previous marketing year. The UDSA raised exports 20 million bushels to 2.25 billion, for total use of 4.575 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $11.15 per bushel, compared to $11.15 last month and $8.57 last marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are estimated at 1.714 billion pounds, compared to 1.814 billion in January and 1.849 billion in 2019/20. The USDA increased biodiesel use 100 million pounds to 8.3 billion, for total use of 26.05 billion pounds. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $.40 per pound, compared to $.385 a month ago and $.2965 for the previous marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks are projected at 350,000 short tons, compared to 350,000 last month and 341,000 last marketing year. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $400 per short ton, compared to $390 in January and $299.50 for 2019/20.

2020/21 world wheat ending stocks are expected to be 304.22 million tons, compared to 313.19 million a month ago, with production of 773.44 million tons, compared to 772.64 million in the last update. The USDA raised expectations for Kazakhstan, cancelling out modest declines for Argentina and Brazil. Domestic feed use is seen at 147.78 million tons, compared to 142.38 million last month, with exports of 194.84 million tons, compared to 193.78 million in January. The USDA did lower the export outlook for Argentina, while increasing projections for the European Union plus the United Kingdom, India, and Kazakhstan, and bumped up the import guess for China to 10 million tons.

2020/21 world corn ending stocks are estimated at 286.53 million tons, compared to 283.83 million last month, with production of 1.134 billion tons, compared to the prior projection of 1.114 billion, on a higher guess for South Africa. Domestic feed use is pegged at 727.37 million tons, compared to 725.02 million in January, with exports of 185.70 million tons, compared to 183.63 million a month ago. The USDA raised the export guess for South Africa slightly and hiked imports by China to 24 million tons.

2020/21 world soybean ending stocks are projected at 83.36 million tons, compared to 84.31 million in January, with production of 361.08 million tons, nearly unchanged from the previous estimate of 361 million, with no announced adjustments. Domestic crush use is expected to be 321.98 million tons, compared to 321.81 million last month, with exports of 169.69 million tons, compared to 169.10 million a month ago. Imports by China were left unchanged at 100 million tons.