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USDA lowers U.S. corn, soybean carryover projections

The USDA has tightened the old and new crop ending stocks estimates for soybeans and corn.

The month to month change for old crop corn was bigger export demand guess and for soybeans, it was a higher domestic crush projection. On new crop corn, USDA lowered the feed use guess, but increased the ethanol use estimate, and on new crop beans, the only changes were that adjustment to the old crop carryover and a slightly higher domestic crush guess. The USDA’s international numbers for corn and soybeans were mixed but could be construed as neutral.

The USDA’s new crop wheat ending stocks estimate was down slightly on the month, with a bigger export demand projection and a higher expected average farm price. World ending stocks were up modestly, but the USDA did lower its production outlooks for the European Union, Russia, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states.

The 2018/19 U.S. marketing year for wheat got underway June 1st and 2017/18 for corn and soybeans runs through the end of August. The current marketing year for soybean products last through the end of September.

Month to month comparisons for selected supply and demand tables:

2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks were reported at 1.08 billion bushels, up 10 million from May and 1.181 billion bushels for 20016/17. The USDA lowered the export estimate from 910 million to 900 million bushels. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $4.75 per bushel, compared to $4.70 a month ago and $3.89 for the previous marketing year.

2018/19 U.S. ending stocks are seen at 946 million bushels, compared to 955 million last month. The increase in beginning stocks, or last marketing year’s ending stocks, and the higher production estimate were canceled out by an increase export demand guess, up 25 million bushels to 950 million. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $4.60 to $5.60 per bushel, compared to $4.50 to $5.50 in May.

2017/18 U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 2.102 billion bushels, compared to 2.182 billion a month ago and the year ago total of 2.293 billion bushels. Month to month, the USDA lowered exports 5 million bushels to 45 million, while raising exports 75 million bushels to 2.3 billion. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $3.25 to $3.55 per bushel, unchanged from last month; the 2016/17 farm price was $3.36.

2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.577 billion bushels, compared to 1.682 billion in May. The lower beginning stocks and reduced feed & residual use expectations were canceled out but a higher ethanol use projection, up 50 million bushels to a record 5.675 billion. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $3.40 to $4.40 per bushel, compared to $3.30 to $4.30 a month ago.

2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks are estimated at 505 million bushels, compared to 530 million last month and 302 million last marketing year. The sole change to the balance sheet was a higher domestic crush use guess: up 25 million bushels to 2.015 billion. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $9.40 per bushel, compared to $9.35 for May and $9.47 for 2016/17.

Of interest for 2017/18 soybean products, soybean oil for biodiesel use was left unchanged at 6.8 billion pounds and exports were increased 100 million to 2.4 billion, but the production and import estimates were higher, pushing the ending stocks projection to 2.176 billion pounds. The average 2017/18 farm price for soybean oil is estimate at $.305 per pound, unchanged from a month ago and down from the average of $.3248 a year ago. Old crop soybean meal exports were up 400,000 short tons to 13.1 million, production was hiked 600,000 short tons to 47.699 million, and domestic disappearance was higher, leaving ending stocks at 300,000 short tons. The average 2017/18 farm price for soybean meal is estimated at $360 per short ton, unchanged from last month and up from the $316.88 average last marketing year.

2018/19 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 385 million bushels, compared to 415 million in May. The only month to month changes were the lower beginning stocks and a 5-million-bushel increase for crush use, up to 2 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $8.75 to $11.25 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago.

For 2018/19, the USDA left the soybean oil for biodiesel use estimate and the export projection unchanged at 7.3 billion and 2.1 billion pounds, respectively. Ending stocks are now projected at 2.176 billion pounds, compared to 1.836 billion last month, as higher beginning stocks and production canceled out the increased demand outlooks. The average 2018/19 farm price for soybean oil is estimated $.295 to $.335 per pound, unchanged from last month. For soybean meal, new crop production was up 200,000 short tons on the month on that increased crush demand estimate, while domestic disappearance was also up 200,000 short tons, leaving ending stocks at 300,000 short tons. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $330 to $370 per short ton, unchanged from May.

2017/18 world wheat ending stocks came out at 272.37 million tons, compared to 270.46 million a month ago and 257.33 million for the previous marketing year. The global production estimate was down slightly to 758.22 million tons. Domestic feed use was up modestly at 145.45 million tons, as were exports, now projected at 182.8 million.

2018/19 world wheat ending stocks are pegged at 266.16 million tons, compared to 264.33 million last month. The world crop is now seen at 744.69 million tons, down more than 3 million, with lowered expectations for the European Union, Russia, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states cancelling out increases for India and the United States. Domestic feed use is estimated at 142.67 million tons, compared to 145.59 million in May, and exports are seen at 187.32 million tons, compared to 188.43 million a month ago.

2017/18 world corn ending stocks are estimated at 192.69 million tons, compared to 194.85 million last month. Global production is expected to be 1.035 billion tons, compared to 1.037 billion last month, with a lower outlook for Brazil, from 87 million tons to 85 million. Domestic feed use is projected at 648.61 million tons, nearly unchanged from May, with exports of 151.51 million tons, also just about steady with a month ago. Brazil’s export guess was lowered 1 million tons to 29 million, while the dozen smaller former Soviet states and Ukraine were lowered about 500,000 tons to 24.76 million and 19.5 million tons, respectively.

2018/19 world corn ending stocks are seen at 154.69 million tons, compared to 159.15 million in May. The world crop is expected to be 1.052 billion tons, down around 5 million on the month, on a reduced projection for the dozen smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed use is estimated at 665.56 million tons, compared to 665.56 million a month ago, and exports are pegged at 156.02 million tons, compared to 158.02 million last month. The USDA lowered its outlook for the dozen smaller former Soviet states.

2017/18 world soybean stocks are expected to total 92.49 million tons, compared to 92.16 million in May. This year’s global crop is projected at 336.70 million tons, unchanged on the month, with an increase of 2 million tons for Brazil, up to 119 million, cancelling out a 2 million ton decrease for Argentina, down to 37 million. Domestic crush use is seen at 299.65 million tons, compared to 299.39 million a month ago, with exports of 152.11 million tons, compared to 151.26 million last month. Again, the USDA lowered the outlook for Argentina and raised the estimate for Brazil.

2018/19 world soybean ending stocks are pegged at 87.02 million tons, compared to 86.70 million a month ago. The world crop projection of 355.24 million tons was up 700,000 tons, with an anticipated increase for Brazil, up to 118 million tons. Domestic crush use is estimated at 313.47 million tons, compared to 313.34 million last month, while exports are seen at 162.37 million tons, compared to 161.82 million in May. Month to month, the USDA raised the projection for Brazil.