News

USDA lowers total red meat and poultry forecast for 2019

The USDA has decreased total red meat and poultry production for 2018.  The agency says declines in beef and broiler more than offset slightly higher pork production.  Lower cattle slaughter totals combined with lighter carcass weights through late December contributed to the decline in beef production.  Pork production was raised as heavier carcass weights through late December offset the lower-than-expected fourth-quarter hog slaughter.  Broiler production was lowered, and turkey production was unchanged.

The USDA has also lowered its forecast for total red meat and poultry production in 2019 on lower expected beef, pork, and broiler production.  Smaller anticipated placements in late 2018 and early 2019 are expected to result in lower fed cattle marketings and slaughter in the first half of the year.  Pork production forecast is lowered as the agency expects a decline in hog slaughter with slightly lighter carcass weights in the first half of the year.  Broiler production has been decreased for 2019 and the turkey production forecast has been raised slightly. 

Fed cattle prices for the first quarter of 2019 are raised on current prices, hog prices are unchanged, and first-half broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts have been raised on prices to date. 

Milk production for 2018 has been lowered and the forecast for 2019 has been reduced on lower expected first-half dairy cow numbers and continued slow growth in milk per cow.  Dairy product prices for 2018 have been adjusted and for 2019, the cheese price forecast is lowered, while butter, NDM, and whey price forecast are raised.  The Class III price for 2019 is unchanged, while the Class IV price is raised on higher butter and NDM prices.  The 2019 all milk price forecast has been raised to $16.90 to $17.650 per cwt.