News

USDA lowers red meat outlook, raises poultry

The USDA has lowered its 2018 red meat production estimate. The new projection is 54.058 billion pounds, compared to May’s guess of 54.203 billion.

The month to month reduction on beef, from 27.215 billion pounds to 27.125 billion, was because of lighter carcass weights cancelling out higher slaughter levels during the second quarter of the year. Beef imports were 20 million pounds higher at 3.052 billion and exports were increased 15 million pounds to 3.05 billion, with per capita consumption declining 0.2 pounds per person to 57.9.

Pork production was down from May, from 26.770 billion pounds to 26.715 billion, with the USDA expecting slower kill rates in the second and third quarter to cancel out slightly heavier carcass weights. Imports were up 45 million pounds to 1.144 billion, and exports were also higher, moving from 5.916 billion pounds to 5.991 billion. Per capita consumption was down 0.2 at 51.7.

The average steer price is seen at $114 to $118 per hundredweight, steady to $1 lower, with barrows and gilts at $44 to $45, steady to $1 higher.

The USDA increased its 2018 production outlook for poultry, from 48.786 billion pounds last month to 48.922 billion this month.

Broiler chicken production was up sharply from May, jumping from 42.330 billion pounds to 42.45 billion, because of a stronger than anticipated second quarter slaughter rate and expectations for more growing during the third and fourth quarters. Import and export projections were unchanged, while the per capita estimate was up 0.3 at 92.2 pounds.

Turkey was modestly higher, up 20 million pounds to 5.937 billion because of the current pace of production. Import and export projections were unchanged, along with the USDA’s per capita consumption guess.

The average 2018 broiler price is seen at $.96 to $1.04 per pound, steady to $.04 lower, while turkeys are pegged at $.81 to $.84, steady to $.01 higher.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out July 12th.