News

USDA lowers cotton ending stocks guess

The USDA tightened the balance sheet for U.S. cotton, while leaving rice unchanged.

Cotton ending stocks are seen at 4.2 million bales, down 100,000 from February, with a cut for new crop production on a lower yield guess, along with a decrease in domestic use and a cut in the old crop supply. The average farm price was up a penny on the month at $.69 per pound.

Rice ending stocks were steady, with no changes to the balance sheet, expect for the average farm price, now estimated at $13.60 per hundredweight, up $.20 from last month.

Globally, the USDA lowered cotton ending stocks, also reducing production, and raising domestic and export use. World rice ending stocks were down modestly, with slight increases for production and domestic use.

The current marketing year for cotton and rice runs through the end of July.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out April 9^th.

2020/21 U.S. rice ending stocks are seen at 39.4 million hundredweight, compared to 39.4 million in February and 28.7 million for 2019/20. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $13.60 per hundredweight, compared to $13.40 a month ago and $13.60 the previous marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. cotton ending stocks are projected at 4.2 million bales, compared to 4.3 million last month and 7.25 million last marketing year. The USDA left planted and harvested area estimates unchanged, while lowering the average yield 14 pounds per acre to 811, putting production at 14.7 million bales, compared to 14.95 million in the last update, for a total supply of 21.95 million bales. Domestic use was cut by 100,000 bales to 2.3 million, taking total use to 17.8 million, while unaccounted for stocks went from 10,000 to -50,000. The average 2020/21 farm price for upland cotton is estimated at $.69 per pound, compared to $.68 in February and $.596 for 2019/20.

2020/21 world rice ending stocks are expected to be 177.83 million tons, compared to 178.10 million a month ago. The USDA lowered beginning stocks but raised production on increased projections for Burma and India. Domestic use is pegged at 504.69 million tons, compared to 504.21 million in February, with exports of 46.25 million tons, unchanged from last month.

2020/21 world cotton ending stocks are estimated at 94.59 million bales, compared to 95.74 million in February. Beginning stocks and production were both lowered, with the USDA cutting crop size expectations for the U.S., Brazil, the Southern Hemisphere, and Mexico. Domestic use is seen at 117.46 million bales, compared to 117.21 million last month, and exports are expected to be 44.54 million bales, compared to 43.9 million a month ago.