News

USDA lowers corn ending stocks estimate

 

The USDA has raised its domestic ending stocks projections for soybeans and wheat, while tightening the balance sheet for corn. Soybean ending stocks matched a lot of pre-report expectations, primarily on a lower export estimate because of increased competition from South America. Wheat was reported at the high end of estimates, also on a reduced export guess. Corn ending stocks were down modestly from last month following a hike in the ethanol use numbers.

The USDA’s final 2017 production totals for corn and soybeans, quarterly stocks data, and the first official winter wheat acreage estimate of the season are all out in January.

The 2017/18 marketing year started June 1st for wheat, September 1st for corn and soybeans, and October 1st for soybean products.

2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks came out at 960 million bushels, compared to 935 million in November and 1.181 billion in 2016/17. The sole change to the balance sheet was the USDA lowering exports 25 million bushels to 975 million, putting total use at 2.111 billion bushels. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $4.50 to $4.70 per bushel, compared to $4.40 to $4.80 a month ago and $3.89 in a year ago.

2017/18 U.S. corn ending stocks were pegged at 2.437 billion bushels, compared to 2.487 billion last month and 2.295 billion last marketing year. USDA raised food, seed, and industrial use 50 million bushels to 6.985 billion, on increased ethanol use, up to 5.525 billion bushels, for domestic use of 12.560 billion and total use of 14.485 billion bushels. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $2.85 to $3.55 per bushel, compared to November’s range of $2.80 to $3.60 and the 2016/17 average of $3.36.

2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 445 million bushels, compared to 425 million a month ago and 301 million a year ago. The USDA reduced the export projection 25 million bushels to 2.225 billion, but raised seed use 5 million bushels to 106 million, for total use of 4.306 billion bushels. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $8.60 to $10.00 per bushel, compared to $8.45 to $10.15 last month and $9.47 last marketing year.

2017/18 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are estimated at 1.616 billion bushels, unchanged from November and below the 1.711 billion at the end of 2016/17. USDA raised the biodiesel use projection to 7.5 billion pounds, while lowering food, feed, and other industrial use to 13.5 billion and exports to 1.9 billion pounds, leaving the total use unchanged at 22.9 billion. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $.325 to $.365 per pound, steady with a month ago and above $.3248 a year ago.

2017/18 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks are expected to be 300,000 short tons, unchanged from last month and below the 401,000 last year. There were no month to month changes to the balance sheet. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $295 to $335 per short ton, compared to $295 to $335 in November and $316.88 in 2016/17.

2017/18 world wheat ending stocks came out at 268.42 million tons, compared to 267.53 million a month ago. Global production is now pegged at 755.21 million tons, up 3.23 million, following upward revisions for Canada and the European Union, with canceled out reduced outlooks for Brazil and “select Middle Eastern” nations. Domestic feed use is seen at 142.67 million tons, compared to 140.77 million last month, and exports are estimated at 182.15 million tons, compared to 180.68 million in November.

2017/18 world corn ending stocks are projected at 204.08 million tons, compared to 203.86 million last month. This year’s world crop is estimated at 1.045 billion tons, a little bit more than in November on increased expectations for the European Union and China offsetting a decrease for the dozen smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed use pegged at 652.40 million tons, compared to 652.53 million in November, and exports were unchanged on the month at 151.61 million tons.

2017/18 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 98.32 million tons, compared to 98.32 million in November. Global production is expected to be 348.47 million tons, slightly less than the last guess, but with no reported changes. USDA left Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay unchanged at 57 million tons, 108 million, and 9.4 million tons, respectively. Imports by China held at 97 million tons. Domestic crush demand is seen at 301.57 million tons, compared to 301.98 million a month ago, and exports are expected to be 152.45 million tons, compared to 152.43 million last month. The USDA lowered its outlook for the U.S., while increasing export expectations for Argentina and Brazil by 500,000 tons each.