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USDA lowers 2022 corn, soybean crop estimates

The USDA has trimmed its outlook for corn and soybean production. Weather has been widely varied for most of the growing season and this is the first round of field-based crop production estimates of the season, including updated planted and harvested acreage numbers based on recent USDA Farm Service Agency data.

As of September 1st, corn is seen at 13.944 billion bushels, 3% less than in August and 8% below 2021, with the average yield guess of 175.5 bushels per acre, down 2.9 on the month, and harvested area of 80.844 million acres. In 2021, corn production totaled 15.115 billion bushels with an average yield of 177 bushels per acre and harvested area of 85.388 million acres.

Soybeans are pegged at 4.378 billion bushels, a decrease of 3% from last month and 1% from last year, with an average yield of 50.5 bushels per acre, a decrease of 1.4 from a month ago, and harvested area of 86.631 million acres. Last year, production totaled 4.378 billion bushels with an average yield of 51.4 bushels per acre and harvested area of 86.332 million acres.

Planted and harvested area figures for corn and soybeans were both down 1% from the prior projections at 88.608 million and 87.455 million acres, respectively, following resurveys of farmers in some key growing areas.

The USDA also lowered old and new crop corn ending stocks estimates and cut the new crop outlook for the soybean carryover, while raising old crop soybeans and leaving wheat unchanged.

The 2022/23 marketing year kicked off June 1st for wheat and September 1st for beans and corn.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 12th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas:

Corn: 35.38 million bushels, compared to 56.235 million in 2021; Yield: 122 bushels per acre, compared to 134 a month ago and 163 a year ago; Planted Area: 710,000 acres, unchanged from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 290,000 acres, compared to 345,000 last year

Soybeans: 166.95 million bushels, compared to 153.51 million in 2021; Yield: Record 53 bushels per acre, compared to 53 a month ago and 51 a year ago; Planted Area: 3.2 million acres, a decrease of 20,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 3.15 million acres, compared to 3.01 million last year

Illinois:

Corn: 2.152 billion bushels, compared to 2.192 billion in 2021; Yield: 204 bushels per acre, compared to 203 a month ago and 202 a year ago; Planted Area: 10.8 million acres, an increase of 100,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 10.55 million acres, compared to 10.85 million last year

Soybeans: 684.8 million bushels, compared to 672.64 million in 2021; Yield: Record 64 bushels per acre, compared to 66 a month ago and 64 a year ago; Planted Area: 10.8 million acres, a decrease of 400,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 10.7 million acres, compared to 10.51 million last year

Indiana:

Corn: 939.3 million bushels, compared to 1.028 billion in 2021; Yield: 186 bushels per acre, compared to 189 a month ago and 195 a year ago; Planted Area: 5.2 million acres, an increase of 100,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 5.05 million acres, compared to 5.27 million last year

Soybeans: 349.8 million bushels, compared to 335.58 million in 2021; Yield: Record 60 bushels per acre, compared to 60 a month ago and 59.5 a year ago; Planted Area: 5.85 million acres, unchanged from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 5.83 million acres, compared to 5.64 million last year

Iowa:

Corn: 2.49 billion bushels, compared to 2.552 billion in 2021; Yield: 200 bushels per acre, compared to 205 both a month ago and a year ago; Planted Area: 12.9 million acres, an increase of 200,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 12.45 million acres, steady with last year

Soybeans: 591.18 million bushels, compared to 621.86 million in 2021; Planted Area: 10.1 million acres, a decrease of 200,000 from the guess; Yield: 59 bushels per acre, compared to 58 a month ago and 62 a year ago; Harvested Area: 10.02 million acres, compared to 10.03 million last year

Kansas:

Corn: 628.3 million bushels, compared to 750.6 million in 2021; Yield: 122 bushels per acre, compared to 123 a month ago and 139 a year ago; Planted Area: 5.5 million acres, an increase of 100,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 5.15 million acres, compared to 5.4 million last year

Soybeans: 160 million bushels, compared to 189.6 million in 2021; Yield: 32 bushels per acre, compared to 40 a month ago and 39.5 a year ago; Planted Area: 5.05 million acres, an increase of 50,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 5 million acres, compared to 4.8 million last year

Michigan:

Corn: 330.96 million bushels, compared to 346.26 million in 2021; Yield: 168 bushels per acre, compared to 170 a month ago and 174 a year ago; Planted Area: 2.35 million acres, an increase of 100,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 1.97 million acres, compared to 1.99 million last year

Soybeans: 104.81 million bushels, compared to 109.14 million in 2021; Yield: 47 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a month ago and 51 a year ago; Planted Area: 2.25 million acres, unchanged from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 2.23 million acres, compared to 2.14 million last year

Minnesota:

Corn: 1.435 billion bushels, compared to 1.396 billion in 2021; Yield: 190 bushels per acre, compared to 193 a month ago and 178 a year ago; Planted Area: 8.05 million acres, a decrease of 250,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 7.55 million acres, compared to 7.84 million last year

Soybeans: 369 million bushels, compared to 356.26 million in 2021; Yield: 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 47 a year ago; Planted Area: 7.45 million acres, a decrease of 50,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 7.38 million acres, compared to 7.58 million last year

Missouri:

Corn: 476.8 million bushels, compared to 548.8 million in 2021; Yield: 149 bushels per acre, compared to 153 a month ago and 160 a year ago; Planted Area: 3.35 million acres, a decrease of 250,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 3.2 million acres, compared to 3.43 million last year

Soybeans: 284.35 million bushels, compared to 276.85 million in 2021; Yield: 47 bushels per acre, compared to 49 both a month ago and a year ago; Planted Area: 6.1 million acres, an increase of 200,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 6.05 million acres, compared to 5.65 million last year

Nebraska:

Corn: 1.637 billion bushels, compared to 1.855 billion in 2021; Yield: 176 bushels per acre, compared to 181 a month ago and 194 a year ago; Planted Area: 9.6 million acres, a decrease of 100,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 9.3 million acres, compared to 9.56 million last year

Soybeans: 296.4 million bushels, compared to 350.91 million in 2021; Yield: 52 bushels per acre, compared to 55 a month ago and 63 a year ago; Planted Area: 5.75 million acres, an increase of 150,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 5.7 million acres, compared to 5.57 million last year

Ohio:

Corn: 580.32 million bushels, compared to 644.62 million in 2021; Yield: 186 bushels per acre, compared to 190 a month ago and 193 a year ago; Planted Area: 3.35 million acres, a decrease of 50,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 3.12 million acres, compared to 3.34 million last year

Soybeans: 284.48 million bushels, compared to 275.72 million in 2021; Yield: 56 bushels per acre, compared to 57 a month ago and 56.5 a year ago; Planted Area: 5.1 million acres, an increase of 150,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 5.08 million bushels, compared to 4.88 million last year

South Dakota:

Corn: 724.5 million bushels, compared to 739.8 million in 2021; Yield: 138 bushels per acre, compared to 147 a month ago and 135 a year ago; Planted Area: 5.75 million acres, a decrease of 150,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 5.25 million acres, compared to 5.48 million last year

Soybeans: 207.05 million bushels, compared to 215.6 million in 2021; Yield: 41 bushels per acre, compared to 43 a month ago and 40 a year ago; Planted Area: 5.1 million acres, a decrease of 500,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 5.05 million acres, compared to 5.39 million last year

Tennessee:

Corn: 102.235 million bushels, compared to 163.2 million in 2021; Yield: 127 bushels per acre, compared to 130 a month ago and 170 a year ago; Planted Area: 850,000 acres, a decrease of 120,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 805,000 acres, compared to 960,000 last year

Soybeans: 74.52 million bushels, compared to 76 million in 2021; Yield: 46 bushels per acre, compared to 44 a month ago and 50 a year ago; Planted Area: 1.65 million acres, a decrease of 150,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 1.62 million acres, compared to 1.52 million last year

Wisconsin:

Corn: 539.85 million bushels, compared to 547.2 million in 2021; Yield: Record 183 bushels per acre, compared to 185 a month ago and 180 a year ago; Planted Area: 3.95 million acres, a decrease of 50,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 2.95 million acres, compared to 3.04 million last year

Soybeans: 112.89 million bushels, compared to 113.85 million in 2021; Yield: 53 bushels per acre, compared to 52 a month ago and 55 a year ago; Planted Area: 2.16 million acres, down 90,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 2.13 million acres, compared to 2.07 million last month

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