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USDA leaves corn, soybean estimates unchanged

The USDA has left its 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production estimates unchanged from November. That is as the USDA surveys producers for the January report, which usually serves as the final accounting of the previous year’s production, but with the slow harvest, the numbers are expected to change further in the following months.

Domestic ending stocks projections for both corn and beans were also unchanged on the month, while the department lowered the outlook for wheat because of lower imports and higher exports. Globally, corn and soybean ending stocks were up, even with no changes to the South American production guesses, and world wheat ending stocks were a little higher.

The 2019/20 marketing year got underway June 1st for wheat, September 1st for corn and soybeans, and October 1st for soybean products. The next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out January 10th.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2019/20 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 974 million bushels, compared to 1.014 billion in November and 1.08 billion for 2018/19. The USDA lowered imports 15 million bushels to 105 million, taking total supply to 3.105 billion bushels. Exports were raised 25 million to 975 million, for total use of 2.131 billion bushels. The average estimated 2019/20 farm price is $4.55 per bushel, compared to $4.60 a month ago and $5.16 the previous marketing year.

2019/20 U.S. corn ending stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bushels, unchanged from last month and down from the 2.114 billion last marketing year. The USDA made no changes to the balance sheet. The average estimated 2019/20 farm price is $3.85 per bushel, compared to $3.85 in November and $3.61 for 2018/19.

2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 475 million bushels, steady with a month ago and down from the 913 million in the prior marketing year. There were no changes to the domestic balance sheet for soybeans. The average estimated 2019/20 farm price is $8.85 per bushel, compared to $9.00 last month and $8.48 last marketing year. The USDA made no changes to soybean oil and adjustments for soybean meal were offsetting, leaving ending stocks steady. The average estimated 2019/20 farm price for soybean oil is $.31 per pound, steady on the month, and for soybean meal, the price is seen at $310 per short ton, down $.15.

2019/20 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 289.5 million tons, compared to 288.28 million in November. Production was modestly lower at 765.41 million tons, with downward adjustments for Argentina, Australia, and Canada mostly cancelling out increases for the European Union, China, and Japan. Domestic feed use is pegged at 148.69 million tons, compared to 148.69 million a month ago, with exports at 179.81 million tons, compared to 180.68 million last month, with decreases for Argentina, Australia, and Canada against an increase for Russia.

2019/20 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 300.56 million tons, compared to 295.96 million a month ago. Global production is pegged at 1.109 billion tons, a jump of nearly 6.5 million on the month, with a bigger guess for China offsetting a slight decline in Canada. Domestic feed use is seen at 696.32 million tons, compared to 694.89 million last month, with exports of 166.64 million tons, compared to 167.05 million in November. The USDA left export projections unchanged for Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine.

2019/20 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 96.4 million tons, compared to 95.42 million last month. The world crop is expected to be 337.48 million tons, up just under a million on the month following a higher guess for China. Domestic crush demand is pegged at 302.83 million tons, compared to 302.83 million in November, and exports are estimated at 149.15 million tons, compared to 149.75 million a month ago. The USDA did lower the outlook for Argentina slightly. Imports by China were unchanged at 85 million tons.