USDA increases U.S. wheat ending stocks

The USDA has increased its outlook for domestic wheat ending stocks.

With two months left in the marketing year, the U.S. wheat carryover is now seen at 598 million bushels, up 30 million from March due to higher imports and lower exports. That’s much tighter than average for this time of year following a few years of steady to lower production and solid domestic demand. The average estimated 2022/23 farm price is $8.90 per bushel, compared to $9 a month ago and $7.63 in the previous marketing year.

Corn ending stocks were unchanged on the month at 1.342 billion bushels because of a reduction in imports being canceled out by a cut in food, seed, and industrial use, with no changes to exports or ethanol use. The average estimated 2022/23 farm price is $6.60 per bushel, compared to $6.60 last month and $6 last marketing year.

Soybeans were steady at 210 million bushels with no changes to the balance sheet. The USDA also left soybean oil for biofuel use steady with last month. The average estimated 2022/23 farm price for soybeans is $14.30 per bushel, compared to $14.30 in March and $13.30 for 2021/22. The USDA made a slight month-to-month cut in the 2022/23 price outlook for soybean oil, now at $.64 per pound, while the average soybean meal price held at $465 per short ton. That soybean oil price would be down from 2021/22, but soybean meal would be up.

The new marketing year starts June 1st for wheat, September 1st for soybeans and corn, and October 1st for soybean products.

Globally, the soybean production guess for Brazil was up modestly with corn unchanged, while corn, soybean, and wheat production for Argentina were down.

The USDA also raised corn and wheat export projections for Russia and Ukraine.

The next round of supply and demand estimates is out May 12th.

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