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USDA increases U.S. rice stocks, decreases cotton

The USDA has raised the U.S. rice ending stocks guess, while cutting the outlook for cotton.

Rice came out at 39.4 million hundredweight, up 1 million from January on a reduction for milled rice exports. Cotton is pegged at 4.3 million bales, down 300,000 on the month, with the USDA expecting improved export demand.

Globally, rice ending stocks were lowered by more than a million tons mostly on increased exports, with slightly higher production and a modestly higher import estimate for China. World cotton stocks were down less than a million tons, with the USDA raising projections for production, domestic use, imports, and exports.

The current marketing year for cotton and rice started August 1^st, 2020.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out March 9^th.

2020/21 U.S. rice ending stocks are estimated at 39.4 million hundredweight, compared to 38.4 million in January and 28.7 million for 2019/20. The USDA lowered exports 1 million hundredweight, all out of milled rice, leaving total use at 253 million hundredweight. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $13.40 per hundredweight, compared to $13.20 a month ago and $13.60 in the previous marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. cotton ending stocks are projected at 4.3 million 480-pound bales, compared to 4.6 million last month and 7.25 million last year. The USDA raised exports by 250,000 bales to 15.5 million, for total use of 17.9 million bales, while shifting unaccounted for supplies from -4,000 bales to 1,000 bales. The average 2020/21 farm price for upland cotton is estimated at $.68 per pound, compared to $.68 in January and $.596 for 2019/20.

2020/21 world rice ending stocks are seen at 178.1 million tons, compared to 179.5 million a month ago, with production at 504.02 million tons, up less than a million from the last guess, as an increase for Indonesia canceled out a decrease for Nigeria. Domestic use is pegged at 504.21 million tons, compared to 501.97 million last month, with exports of 46.25 million tons, compared to 45.38 million in January.

2020/21 world cotton ending stocks are expected to be 95.74 million bales, compared to 96.32 million last month, with production of 114.14 million bales, compared to the prior projection of 112.87 million. The USDA raised the outlook for Australia, the southern hemisphere in general, China, and Pakistan, while cutting the guess for India. Domestic use is seen at 117.21 million bales, compared to 115.73 million in January, with exports of 43.9 million bales, compared to 43.56 million a month ago. Imports by China are estimated at 11 million tons, up 500,000, with production at 29 million tons, 1.5 million higher.