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USDA increases soybean crop guess, cuts corn

The USDA has lowered their outlook for this year’s corn crop, while raising the estimate for soybeans slightly.

Corn production is expected to be 14.359 billion bushels, down 146 million on the month with a cut 1.6 bushel per acre cut in the yield estimate due to hot, dry weather in some key U.S. growing areas, now at 175.4 bushels per acre. Planted area is now pegged at 89.821 million acres with harvested area at 81.84 million, both 100,000 less than the July report. In 2021, production totaled 15.115 billion bushels with an average yield of 177 bushels per acre and harvested area of 85.388 million acres.

Soybeans are seen at 4.531 billion bushels, 25.6 million more than last month, with a modest increase in yield, up 0.4 bushels per acre to a record 51.9, despite those widespread weather issues and a reduction in the planted area estimate following a resurvey of farmers following planting delays. After that resurvey, the USDA has planted area at 88.025 million acres and harvested area at 87.211 million, both 300,000 less than the last guess. For 2021, U.S. soybean production totaled 4.435 billion bushels with an average yield of 51.4 bushels per acre and harvested area of 86.332 million acres.

All wheat production is pegged at 1.783 billion bushels, including winter wheat at 1.198 billion, both very close to the July guess, and spring wheat at 511.690 million bushels, 2% above a month ago and 55% above a year ago with a small month to month upward adjustment in yield, from 47 bushels per acre to 47.8. The average yield for winter wheat is projected at 47.9 bushels per acre, down 0.1 on the month and 2.3 on the year, with hard red at 576.173 million bushels, 2% lower than last month, soft red winter at 381 million, 2% higher, and white winter at 240.151 million bushels, up slightly. There were no changes to the USDA’s spring wheat planted and harvested area numbers from the July report. For 2021, U.S. wheat production totaled 1.646 billion bushels, including 1.277 billion bushels of winter wheat and 331.14 million bushels of spring wheat. Last year, winter wheat averaged 50.2 bushels per acre and spring wheat averaged 32.6 bushels per acre.

The USDA’s next round of production numbers is out September 12th.

Year-to-year comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Corn: 122.82 million bushels, compared to 152.72 million in 2021; Yield: 178 bushels per acre, compared to 184 a year ago; Harvested Area: 690,000 acres, compared to 830,000 last year; Soybeans: 168.01 million bushels, compared to 153.51 million in 2021; Yield: 53 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a year ago; Harvested Area: 3.17 million acres, compared to 3.01 million last year; Winter Wheat: 9.86 million bushels, compared to 8.41 million in 2021; Yield: 58 bushels per acre, steady with both a month ago and a year ago; Harvested Area: 170,000 acres, compared to 145,000 last year

Illinois: Corn: 2.121 billion bushels, compared to 2.192 billion in 2021;
Yield: 203 bushels per acre, compared to 202 a year ago; Harvested Area: 10.45 million acres, compared to 10.85 million last year; Soybeans: 732.6 million bushels, compared to 672.64 million in 2021; Yield: Record 66 bushels per acre, compared to 64 a year ago; Harvested Area: 11.1 million acres, compared to 10.51 million last year; Winter Wheat: 56.88 million bushels, compared to 48.19 million in 2021; Yield: Record 79 bushels per acre, steady with both a month ago and a year ago; Harvested Area: 720,000 acres, compared to 610,000 last year

Indiana: Corn: 935.55 million bushels, compared to 1.028 billion in 2021; Yield: 189 bushels per acre, compared to 195 a year ago; Harvested Area: 4.95 million acres, compared to 5.27 million last year; Soybeans: 349.8 million bushels, compared to 335.58 million in 2021; Yield: Record 60 bushels per acre, compared to 59.5 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.83 million acres, compared to 5.64 million last year; Winter Wheat: 20.5 million bushels, compared to 22.95 million in 2021; Yield: 82 bushels per acre, compared to 82 a month ago and 85 a year ago; Harvested Area: 250,000 acres, compared to 270,000 last year

Iowa: Corn: 2.511 billion bushels, compared to 2.552 billion in 2021; Yield: Record 205 bushels per acre, steady with a year ago; Harvested Area: 12.25 million acres, compared to 12.45 million last year; Soybeans: 592.76 million bushels, compared to 621.86 million in 2021; Yield: 58 bushels per acre, compared to 62 a year ago; Harvested Area: 10.22 million acres, compared to 10.03 million last year

Kansas: Corn: 621.15 million bushels, compared to 750.6 million in 2021; Yield: 123 bushels per acre, compared to 139 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.05 million acres, compared to 5.4 million last year; Soybeans: 198 million bushels, compared to 189.6 million in 2021; Yield: 40 bushels per acre, compared to 39.5 a year ago; Harvested Area: 4.95 million acres, compared to 4.8 million last year; Winter Wheat: 260.3 million bushels, compared to 364 million in 2021; Yield: 38 bushels per acre, compared to 39 a month ago and 52 a year ago; Harvested Area: 6.85 million acres, compared to 7 million last year

Michigan: Corn: 321.3 million bushels, compared to 346.26 million in 2021; Yield: 170 bushels per acre, compared to 174 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.89 million acres, compared to 1.99 million last year; Soybeans: 104.81 million bushels, compared to 109.14 million in 2021; Yield: 47 bushels per acre, compared to 41 a year ago; Harvested Area: 2.23 million acres, compared to 2.14 million last year; Winter Wheat: 35.7 million bushels, compared to 45.36 million in 2021; Yield: 84 bushels per acre, compared to 79 a month ago and 81 a year ago; Harvested Area: 425,000 acres, compared to 560,000 last year

Minnesota: Corn: 1.486 billion bushels, compared to 1.396 billion in 2021; Yield: 193 bushels per acre, compared to 178 a year ago; Harvested Area: 7.7 million acres, compared to 7.84 million last year; Soybeans: 371.5 million bushels, compared to 356.26 million in 2021; Yield: 50 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a year ago; Harvested Area: 7.43 million acres, compared to 7.58 million last year; Spring Wheat: 64.96 million bushels, compared to 55.68 million in 2021; Yield: 56 bushels per acre, compared to 53 a month ago and 48 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.16 million acres, unchanged from last year

Missouri: Corn: 524.79 million bushels, compared to 548.8 million in 2021; Yield: 153 bushels per acre, compared to 160 a year ago; Harvested Area: 3.43 million acres, unchanged from last year; Soybeans: 286.65 million bushels, compared to 276.85 million in 2021; Yield: 49 bushels per acre, steady with a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.85 million acres, compared to 5.65 million last year; Winter Wheat: 43.56 million bushels, compared to 31.85 million in 2021; Yield: 66 bushels per acre, compared to 63 a month ago and 65 a year ago; Harvested Area: 660,000 acres, compared to 490,000 last year

Nebraska: Corn: 1.701 billion bushels, compared to 1.855 billion in 2021; Yield: 181 bushels per acre, compared to 194 a year ago; Harvested Area: 9.4 million acres, compared to 9.56 million last year; Soybeans: 305.25 million bushels, compared to 350.91 million in 2021; Yield: 55 bushels per acre, compared to 63 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.55 million acres, compared to 5.57 million last year; Winter Wheat: 29.24 million bushels, compared to 41.16 million in 2021; Yield: 34 bushels per acre, compared to 37 a month ago and 49 a year ago; Harvested Area: 860,000 acres, compared to 840,000 last year

Ohio: Corn: 602.3 million bushels, compared to 644.62 million in 2021; Yield: 190 bushels per acre, compared to 193 a year ago; Harvested Area: 3.17 million acres, compared to 3.34 million last year; Soybeans: 281.01 million bushels, compared to 275.72 million in 2021; Yield: Record 57 bushels per acre, compared to 56.5 a year ago; Harvested Area: 4.93 million acres, compared to 4.88 million last year; Winter Wheat: 37.44 million bushels, compared to 43.775 million in 2021; Yield: 78 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 85 a year ago; Harvested Area: 480,000 acres, compared to 515,000 last year

South Dakota: Corn: 793.8 million bushels, equaling 2021; Yield: 147 bushels per acre, compared to 135 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.4 million acres, compared to 5.48 million last year; Soybeans: 230.05 million bushels, compared to 215.6 million in 2021; Yield: 43 bushels per acre, compared to 40 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.35 million acres, compared to 5.39 million last year; Winter Wheat: 39.52 million bushels, compared to 27.36 million in 2021; Yield: 52 bushels per acre, compared to 54 a month ago and 38 a year ago; Harvested Area: 760,000 acres, compared to 720,000 last year; Spring Wheat: 32.12 million bushels, compared to 17.11 million in 2021; Yield: 44 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 29 a year ago; Harvested Area: 730,000 acres, compared to 590,000 last year

Tennessee: Corn: 119.6 million bushels, compared to 163.2 million in 2021; Yield: 130 bushels per acre, compared to 170 a year ago; Harvested Area: 920,000 acres, compared to 960,000 last year; Soybeans: 77.88 million bushels, compared to 76 million in 2021; Yield: 44 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.77 million acres, compared to 1.52 million last year; Winter Wheat: 25.915 million bushels, compared to 23.43 million in 2021; Yield: 71 bushels per acre, steady with both a month ago and a year ago; Harvested Area: 365,000 acres, compared to 330,000 last year

Wisconsin: Corn: 555 million bushels, compared to 547.2 million in 2021; Yield: Record 185 bushels per acre, compared to 180 a year ago; Harvested Area: 3 million acres, compared to 3.04 million last year; Soybeans: 115.44 million bushels, compared to 113.85 million in 2021; Yield: 52 bushels per acre, compared to 55 a year ago; Harvested Area: 2.22 million acres, compared to 2.07 million last year; Winter Wheat: 20.02 million bushels, compared to 18.375 million in 2021; Yield: 77 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 75 a year ago; Harvested Area: 260,000 acres, compared to 245,000 last year

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