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USDA hikes corn, winter wheat crop estimates

The USDA has raised its 2021 corn and winter wheat production outlooks following the USDA’s acreage adjustments, while leaving soybeans unchanged.

Corn is now projected at 15.165 billion bushels, up 175 million from June, and raised new crop ending stocks by 75 million bushels to 1.432 billion bushels, with that increase in production cancelling out lower beginning stocks and higher feed use.

Winter wheat is pegged at 1.364 billion bushels, 4% more than in June and up 16% from 2020 thanks to bigger planted area and a better yield, while spring wheat is seen at 344.575 million bushels, down 41% due to drought in some key growing areas. U.S. wheat ending stocks were cut by 105 million bushels to 665 million mainly because of lower production and beginning stocks.

There were no changes to the new crop balance sheet for soybeans. Old crop ending stocks were unchanged, but with the USDA lowering imports and the total supply, while also cutting crush and export use, and reducing the average price outlook.

Globally, the USDA lowered corn production for Brazil and soybean production for Argentina, raised the corn guess for Argentina, and reduced the new crop soybean import guess for China.

The 2021/22 marketing year for wheat started June 1st, 2021, while 2020/21 got underway September 1st, 2020 for beans and corn and October 1st, 2020 for soybean products.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out August 12th.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 844 million bushels, compared to 852 million in June and 1.028 billion for 2019/20. The USDA lowered imports by 5 million bushels to 100 million, leaving total supply at 2.954 billion bushels. Seed use and feed & residual use were both cut by 2 million bushels, for domestic use of 1.119 billion, with exports hiked by 7 million bushels to 992 million, for total use of 2.11 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $5.05 per bushel, compared to $5.05 a month ago and $4.58 for the previous marketing year.

2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected at 665 million bushels, compared to 770 million last month. The USDA lowered beginning stocks and production, while raising imports 20 million bushels to 145 million, for a total supply of 2.735 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was reduced 10 million bushels to 170 million for domestic use of 1.195 billion bushels and exports were cut 25 million to 875 million bushels, leaving total use at 2.07 billion bushels. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated $6.60 per bushel, compared to $6.50 in June.

2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks are expected to be 1.082 billion bushels, compared to 1.107 billion a month ago and 2.221 billion for 2019/20. The USDA raised feed and residual use 25 million bushels to 5.725 billion for domestic use of 12.195 billion bushels and total use of 15.045 billion. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.40 per bushel, compared to $4.35 last month and $3.56 last marketing year.

2021/22 U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.432 billion bushels, compared to 1.357 billion in June. The USDA raised production to 15.165 billion bushels, raised planted area to 92.7 million acres and harvested area to 84.5 million acres, while leaving the average yield at 179.5 bushels per acre. Previously, the USDA had production at 14.99 billion bushels, with harvested area at 91.1 million acres and harvested area at 83.5 million acres. That increase in production canceled out a decrease in beginning stocks, for a total supply of 16.272 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was hiked 25 million bushels to 5.725 billion, for domestic use of 12.34 billion bushels, and exports were raised 50 million bushels to 2.5 billion, for total use of 14.84 billion bushels. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $5.60 per bushel, compared to $5.70 a month ago.

2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 135 million bushels, compared to 135 million last month and 525 million last marketing year. The USDA lowered imports by 15 million bushels to 20 million, for a total supply of 4.68 billion bushels, while cutting the crush by 5 million bushels to 2.17 billion and reducing exports by 10 million bushels to 2.27 billion, leaving total use at 4.545 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $11.05 per bushel, compared to $11.25 in June and $8.57 for 2019/20.

There were no changes to the balance sheet for 2021/22 U.S. soybeans. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $13.70 per bushel, compared to $13.85 a month ago.

2020/21 world wheat ending stocks are expected to be 290.18 million tons, a decrease of 3.3 million from last month. Production was unchanged at 775.82 million tons. The USDA lowered imports and domestic feed use, while raising exports 2.32 million tons to 201.42 million, with increased expectations for Australia and the European Union cancelling out a decrease for Ukraine.

2021/22 world wheat ending stocks are pegged at 291.68 million tons, compared to 296.8 million in June. Production was lowered just over 2 million tons to 792.4 million tons, with higher outlooks for Australia, the European Union, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom cancelling out lower forecasts for Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Domestic feed use is expected to be 160.55 million tons, compared to 160.73 million last month, with exports of 203.99 million tons, compared to 203.22 million a month ago, following increases for Australia, the European Union, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom, which canceled out decreases for Canada and Kazakhstan.

2020/21 world corn ending stocks are seen at 279.86 million tons, below last month, with a more than 4 million ton cut in production due to a drop in Brazil, which canceled out an increase for Argentina. Exports were also lower than last month on an increase for Argentina against a decrease for Brazil.

2021/22 world corn ending stocks are projected at 291.18 million tons, compared to 289.41 million a month ago. Production is expected to be 1.195 billion tons, compared to 1.19 billion in the prior report following hikes for the U.S. and Russia. Domestic feed use is estimated at 747.59 million tons, compared to 748.27 million in June, with exports of 198.84 million tons, compared to 197.47 million last month, also following hokes for the U.S. and Russia. There were no changes to the outlooks for China.

2020/21 world soybean ending stocks are forecast at 91.49 million tons, up 3.49 million from last month. Global production is pegged at 363.57 million tons, a half a million lower on a downgrade for Argentina. Domestic crush use was raised slightly, while exports were slashed by nearly 6 million tons following reductions for both Argentina and Brazil. Imports by China were lowered 2 million tons to 98 million.

2021/22 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 94.49 million tons, compared to 92.55 million in June. Production was slightly lower at 385.22 million tons. Domestic crush demand is seen at 332.04 million tons, compared to 331.69 million a month ago, with exports at 172.85 million tons, compared to 172.9 million last month. Imports by China were lowered 1 million tons to 102 million.

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