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USDA FAS lowers Ukraine corn crop guess, raises exports

The USDA’s Foreign Ag Service has made some adjustments to its export and production outlooks for Ukraine.

The FAS says it has lowered its corn production projection for Ukraine to 23.1 million tons, compared to their last guess of 25.8 million tons, with about 40% of the 2022 crop still in the fields due to several factors, primarily continued armed conflict with Russia. The USDA’s most recent supply and demand report pegs production at 27 million tons, a decline of 4.5 million from November. The USDA also cited reports of high moisture in corn and low farm-gate prices discouraging dry down.

Grain export volumes for the current marketing year were above the USDA’s most recent estimates earlier this month, but the FAS does not expect the Black Sea Grain Initiative to be extended past the end of March. Ukrainian corn exports are now projected by the FAS at 20.2 million tons with wheat at 15.1 million tons. The USDA’s most recent supply and demand report had corn exports at 17.5 million tons with wheat at 12.5 million tons.

The USDA next round of official supply and demand estimates is out January 12^th.