USDA FAS lowers Brazil corn outlook

A late start to planting and dry weather during the growing season have taken their toll on Brazil’s corn crop.

The USDA’s Foreign Ag Service now estimates production at 94 million tons, down 4.5 million from the most recent official projection and 11 million less than the FAS’s last guess, with most of that coming out of Brazil’s critical second crop, the source of most of their exports. Harvest is underway and if realized, this would be Brazil’s smallest total corn crop in 3 years.

The FAS pegs Brazil’s exports at 27 million tons, down 10 million from the previous projection, and 23% lower than last marketing year, opening the door for the U.S. and Ukraine to fill some of that void.

Domestic consumption was steady at 71 million tons with strong feed use from Brazil’s livestock industry and increased corn ethanol production in parts of the nation. That would pull 2020/21 ending stocks below 5 million tons.

2021/22 production is expected to be 116 million tons with exports of 40 million tons and total consumption of 72 million tons, compared to the official June estimates of 118 million tons, 43 million tons, and 73 million tons, respectively.

Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA, CONAB will update its outlook Thursday, June 8th, with the next official USDA estimate out Monday, June 12th.

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