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USDA FAS cuts Brazil corn projection

The USDA’s Foreign Ag Service is lowering their outlook for Brazil’s corn crop, citing hot, dry conditions in some key growing areas.

The FAS sees Brazil’s three crops at a combined 113 million tons, 4 million less than their last guess and 2 million under the official USDA estimate.

Exports are now expected to be 42 million tons, compared to the USDA’s January projection of 43 million tons.

Imports by Brazil are expected to be above a year ago, but most of that is expected to be sourced from inside the Mercosur trading bloc, not the U.S.

The FAS did raise its planted area estimate for Brazil, expecting an increase in second crop planting to help make up for the first crop’s shortfall.

Brazil’s second crop is the largest of the three and the source of most of their exports, planted after soybeans are harvested.

The soybean harvest in Brazil is ahead of average, but is being slowed down in some areas by rain, which is also impacting crop quality.

The USDA’s next set of production projections is out Wednesday at Noon Eastern/11 Central, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil scheduled for Thursday.