News

USDA dairy numbers seem off

A dairy economist says the latest USDA dairy reports don’t add up.

Nate Donnay with StoneX says when analyzing the total number of milk components produced in February’s production report compared to dairy product production numbers, there’s a gap.

“The biggest anomaly here is on the cheese production—58 million pounds higher than forecast, up 6.3 percent from last year,” he says.

Donnay says that miscalculation could come from late reporting at a large plant or major moves within a state but after diving into the numbers, that’s not the case.

“The data doesn’t make sense, it doesn’t tie out on a component basis, but I’m really struggling to point out where the USDA numbers are wrong,” he shares.

Another possibility Donnay says is if milk production isn’t declining as much as estimated. He’ll be watching how the agency adjusts in the coming months to make up for the likely inaccuracies.

Donnay shared his thoughts on the latest dairy reports during his weekly outlook forecast.