News
USDA cuts old crop corn carryover, holds soybean outlook
The USDA has tightened old crop U.S. corn ending stocks, while leaving soybeans unchanged and is projecting more supply tightness next marketing year.
Corn was cut 95 million bushels on the month to 1.257 billion primarily on an increase in exports, while new crop stocks are seen at 1.507 billion bushels, with the first production estimate of the season below 15 billion bushels.
Soybeans held at 120 million bushels with no changes to the balance sheet and the new crop supply is projected at 140 million bushels, with production estimated at 4.405 billion bushels.
Old crop wheat ending stocks are pegged at 872 million bushels, up 20 million, mostly due to a cut in exports, with new crop expected to be 774 million bushels and this year’s wheat crop at just under 1.9 billion bushels.
The USDA also lowered the corn production guess for Brazil because of hot, dry weather, raised the corn import estimate for China, and trimmed soybean production for Argentina.
The next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out June 10th.
The 2020/21 marketing year started June 1st, 2020 for wheat, September 1st, 2020 for corn and soybeans, and October 1st, 2020 for soybean products.
Breakdown of domestic wheat, corn, and soybean balance sheets:
2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected at 872 million bushels, compared to 852 million in April and 1.028 billion for 2019/20. The USDA lowered imports by 5 million bushels to 105 million, taking the total supply to 2.959 billion. Food use was cut by 5 million bushels to 960 million and exports were reduced 20 million bushels to 965 million, putting total use at 2.088 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $5.05 per bushel, compared to $5 a month ago and $4.58 in the previous marketing year.
2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 774 million bushels, with production of 1.872 billion, imports of 125 million, feed use of 170 million bushels, and exports of 900 million. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $6.50 per bushel.
2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks are expected to be 1.257 billion bushels, compared to 1.352 billion last month and 1.919 billion last marketing year. Food, seed, and industrial use was cut 5 million bushels to 6.395 billion, for domestic use of 12.095 billion bushels, and exports were raised 100 million bushels to 2.775 billion, for total use of 14.87 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.35 per bushel, compared to $4.30 for April and $3.56 for 2019/20.
2021/22 U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.507 billion bushels, with production of 14.990 billion, feed use of 5.7 billion bushels, ethanol use of 5.2 billion, and exports of 2.45 billion bushels. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $5.70 per bushel.
2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks are estimated at 120 million bushels, steady with a month ago and well below the 525 million at the end of the previous marketing year. The USDA made no adjustments to the balance sheet. The average 2020/21 farm price of $11.25 per bushel was steady with last month and quite a bit above the $8.57 for last marketing year.
2021/22 U.S. soybean ending stocks are anticipated to be 140 million bushels, with production of 4.405 billion, crush use of 2.225 billion, and exports of 2.075 billion bushels. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $13.85 per bushel.
Add Comment