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USDA cuts corn, soybean, wheat supply outlooks
The USDA has lowered ending stocks outlooks for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat.
The corn carryout was lowered 150 million bushels to 1.552 billion because of a smaller 2020 production total cancelling out decreases in expectations for feed, food, ethanol, and export demand.
Soybeans were cut 35 million bushels to 140 million, on a lower 2020 production total and higher crush and export demand cancelling out higher imports.
Wheat was down 26 million bushels on the month at 836 million following increases in feed and seed use.
The USDA also lowered corn production for Argentina and Brazil because of weather and raised the corn import guess for China, while reducing soybean production for Argentina, but leaving Brazil’s crop and imports by China unchanged.
Soybeans, corn, and wheat futures had very bullish initial reactions to the numbers.
The 2020/21 marketing year started June 1st for wheat and September 1st for corn and soybeans.
The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out February 9th.
Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:
2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 836 million bushels, compared to 862 million in December and 1.028 billion for 2019/20. The USDA raised seed use by 1 million bushels to 63 million and hiked feed and residual use 25 million to 125 million bushels, for domestic use of 1.153 billion bushels and total use of 2.138 billion. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.85 per bushel, compared to $4.70 a month ago and $4.58 the previous marketing year.
2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.552 billion bushels, compared to 1.702 billion last month and 1.919 billion last marketing year. The USDA lowered production by 325 million bushels and cut beginning stocks, or 2019/20 ending stocks, by 76 million on the month, for a total supply of 16.127 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was lowered 50 million bushels to 5.65 billion, food, seed, and industrial use was reduced 100 million bushels at 6.375 billion on a cut in ethanol use, down to 4.95 billion, for domestic use of 12.025 billion bushels. Exports were also lowered 100 million bushels to 2.55 billion, leaving total use at 14.575 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.20 per bushel, compared to $4 in December and $3.56 for 2019/20.
2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks are pegged at 140 million bushels, compared to 175 a month ago and 525 million in the previous marketing year. Beginning stocks were up 2 million bushels at 525 million and imports were 20 million bushels higher at 35 million, but production was lowered 35 million bushels to 4.135 billion, for a total supply of 4.695 billion bushels. The crush was raised 5 million bushels to 2.2 billion and exports were 30 million higher at 2.23 billion, while residual use was 13 million lower at 22 million bushels, for total use of 4.555 billion. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $11.15 per bushel, compared to $10.55 last month and $8.57 last marketing year.
2020/21 world wheat ending stocks are expected to be 313.19 million tons, compared to the December guess of 316.50 million. Production is seen at 772.64 million tons, a reduction of 1.02 million on the month on reduced outlooks for Argentina and China cancelling out rises in Russia and selected Middle Eastern nations. Domestic feed use is seen at 142.38 million tons, compared to 141.03 million a month ago, with exports at 193.78 million tons, compared to 193.65 million last month.
2020/21 world corn ending stocks are estimated at 283.83 million tons, compared to 288.96 million a month ago. Production is projected at 1.134 billion tons, down nearly 10 million, as decreases for the U.S., Argentina, Brazil, and the European Union plus the United Kingdom cancel out an increase for China. Domestic feed use is expected to be 725.02 million tons, compared to 727.98 million last month, with exports at 183.63 million tons, compared to 185.97 million in December. The USDA lowered the U.S. export guess, while leaving Argentina and Brazil unchanged, and raised imports by China 1 million tons to 17.5 million.
2020/21 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 84.31 million tons, compared to 85.64 million last month. Global production is pegged at 361 million tons, 950,000 below the month before, with cuts for the U.S. and Argentina cancelling out a slight rise in China. Domestic crush use is expected to be 321.81 million tons, compared to 321.64 million in December, with exports of 169.1 million tons, compared to 168.48 million a month ago. The USDA lowered U.S. exports, while leaving Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay unchanged. Imports by China were steady at 100 million tons.
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