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USDA cuts 2020 corn production projection

The USDA has slashed its’ projection for 2020 corn production and raised the outlook for soybeans slightly. Those changes follow the June 30th planted area totals, with showed lower than expected corn acreage against an increase for soybeans.

Corn production is pegged at 15 billion bushels, down 995 million from the June supply and demand report, pulling the new crop ending stocks guess down 855 million bushels from last month to a still bearish 2.648 billion bushels. The average yield estimate for corn was unchanged at 178.5 bushels per acre, compared to 167.4 a year ago, but that could also be lowered in coming months, depending on development weather, and the USDA raised old crop ending stocks 145 million bushels to 2.248 billion because of slower feed and fuel use.

Soybean production is now seen at 4.135 billion bushels, 10 million above a month ago, which along with higher old crop ending stocks, up 35 million bushels to 620 million, pushed the new crop ending stocks to 425 million bushels. This year’s average yield guess was unchanged on the month at 49.8 bushels per acre, compared to 47.4 the previous marketing year. The USDA did raise the 2020/21 crush demand estimate.

New crop wheat ending stocks are expected to be 942 million bushels, compared to 925 million a month ago, as a smaller production estimate was mostly canceled out by higher beginning stocks and a lower feed use projection.

The 2020/21 marketing year for wheat started June 1st, while 2019/20 runs through the end of August for corn and soybeans.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out August 12th.

Breakdowns of selected supply and demand tables:

2019/20 U.S. wheat ending stocks came out at 1.044 billion bushels, compared to 983 million in June and 1.080 billion for the 2018/19 marketing year. The USDA lowered feed and residual use 61 million bushels to 74 million, pulling domestic use to 1.096 billion bushels and total use to 2.061 billion. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $4.58 per bushel, compared to $4.58 a month ago and $5.16 for the previous marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 942 million bushels, compared to 925 million last month. With higher beginning stocks, or 2019/20 ending stocks, a 53 million bushel cut in production to 1.824 billion bushels, that leaves the total supply at 3.007 billion. Feed and residual use was decreased 10 million bushels to 90 million for domestic use of 1.115 billion bushels and total use of 2.065 billion. The average estimated 2020/21 farm price of $4.60 was unchanged from June.

2019/20 U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at 2.248 billion bushels, compared to 2.103 billion a month ago and 2.221 billion the previous marketing year. The USDA lowered feed and residual use 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion, food, seed, and industrial use 45 million bushels to 6.26 billion, including a 50 million bushel cut to ethanol use at 4.85 billion, leaving domestic use at 11.86 billion bushels and total use at 13.635 billion. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $3.60 per bushel, steady with last month and down slightly from the $3.61 last marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 2.648 billion bushels, compared to 3.323 billion in June. The USDA raised beginning stocks and cut production, leaving the total supply at 17.273 billion bushels, a reduction of 850 million. Feed and residual use was down 200 million bushels on the month at 5.85 billion, with food, seed, and industrial use up 25 million bushels at 6.625 billion, for domestic use of 12.475 billion bushels and total use of 14.625 billion, each down 175 million bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $3.35 per bushel, compared to $3.20 a month ago.

2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 620 million bushels, compared to 585 million last month and 909 million last marketing year. The USDA raised old crop crush demand 15 million bushels to 2.155 billion and slashed residual use by 50 million bushels to -46 million, leaving total use at 3.857 billion bushels. The average estimated 2019/20 farm price is $8.55 per bushel, compared to $8.50 in June and $8.48 for 2018/19.

2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to be 425 million bushels, compared to 395 million a month ago. Because of higher beginning stocks and higher production, the total supply was up 45 million bushels on the month at 4.77 billion. Crush use was hiked 15 million bushels to 2.16 billion for total use of 4.345 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $8.50 per bushel, compared to $8.20 last month.

2019/20 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 297.12 million tons, up 1.28 million tons from June. Global production is anticipated to be 764.83 million tons, up 420,000 following increased expectations for Argentina and the European Union. Domestic feed use is expected to be 140.23 million tons, compared to 142.16 million last month, with exports of 188.08 million tons, compared to 185.82 million a month ago.

2020/21 world wheat ending stocks are pegged at 314.84 million tons, compared to 316.09 million last month. Production is expected to be 769.31 million tons, a decline of more than 4 million, with reduction projections for the U.S., European Union, Russia, and north Africa cancelling out an increase in Brazil. Domestic feed use is estimated at 135.1 million tons, compared to 136.47 million a month ago, with exports of 188.04 million tons, compared to 188.85 million in June.

2019/20 world corn ending stocks are projected at 311.95 million tons, down less than a million from a month ago. Global production was up modestly at 1.114 billion bushels on higher estimates for the European Union and Southeast Asia. Domestic feed use is estimated at 706.55 million tons, compared to 706.18 million in June, with exports of 171.19 million tons, compared to 169.49 million last month. The USDA raised exports for Argentina but lowered the outlook for Brazil.

2020/21 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 315.04 million tons, compared to 337.87 million in June. Global production was slashed by about 26 million tons to 1.163 billion on reduced projections for the U.S. and Canada against a higher estimate for Russia. Domestic feed use is projected at 727.54 million tons, compared to 730.42 million last month, with exports of 182.45 million tons, compared to 182.5 million a month ago, with no changes for the major exporters.

2019/20 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 99.67 million tons, an increase of 480,000 from last month. Global production was modestly higher at 337.14 million tons because of an upward revision for Brazil. Domestic crush use is pegged at 304.16 million tons, compared to 305.65 million a month ago, with exports of 159.41 million tons, compared to 155.54 million in June. The USDA raised the export outlook for Brazil and the import guess for China.

2020/21 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 95.08 million tons, compared to 96.34 million a month ago. Global production saw a slight decrease to 362.52 million tons as a modest downward statistical revision for one of the major non-U.S. exporters canceled out a slight increase for the U.S. Domestic crush use is expected to be 315.57 million tons, compared to 313.71 million in June, with exports of 161.58 million tons, compared to 161.98 million last month, also on a slight unlisted downward revision for a non-U.S. major exporter. Imports by China were unchanged at 96 million tons.

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