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USDA cotton guess up, rice down

The USDA has raised its production outlook for cotton, while lowering the estimate for rice. It’s been a wide-ranging year for weather in most key U.S. growing areas, while this is the first set of field-based production numbers of the season and includes adjusted acreage totals.

Upland cotton production is expected to be 13.372 million bales, up 1.209 million from August, but down 3.819 million from 2021, with year-to-year reductions in acreage canceling out an increase for yield, now seen at 832 pounds per acre. Planted area is now pegged at 13.791 million acres with harvested area of 7.712 million acres. In 2021, upland cotton production was 17.191 million acres, with a yield of 1,109 pounds per acre and harvested area of 10.149 million acres.

Rice production is seen at 165.144 million hundredweight, a drop of 10.882 million on the month and 26.652 million on the year due to cuts in acreage and yield. The 2022 yield is pegged at 7,586 pounds per acre. Planted area is seen at 2.223 million acres with harvested area of 2.177 million. A year ago, rice totaled 191.796 million hundredweight with an average yield of 7,709 pounds per acre and harvested area of 2.488 million acres.

Old and new crop U.S. cotton stocks were above the prior month’s estimates, while the rice carryout projections were lower.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 12th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas:

Cotton: 1.6 million bales, compared to 1.235 million in 2021; Yield: 1,219 pounds per acre, compared to 1,195 a month ago and 1,248 a year ago; Planted Area: 640,000 acres, an increase of 140,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 630,000 acres, compared to 475,000 last year

Rice: 81.225 million hundredweight, compared to 91.136 million in 2021; Yield: 7,500 pounds per acre, compared to 7,550 a month ago and 7,630 a year ago; Planted Area: 1.106 million acres, a decrease of 45,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 1.083 million acres, compared to 1.194 million last year

Kansas:

Cotton: 230,000 bales, compared to 187,000 in 2021; Yield: 726 pounds per acre, compared to 680 a month ago and 880 a year ago; Planted Area: 165,000 acres, an increase of 35,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 152,000 acres, compared to 102,000 last year

Missouri:

Cotton: 720,000 bales, compared to 814,000 in 2021; Yield: 1,152 pounds per acre, compared to 975 a month ago and 1,036 a year ago; Planted Area: 360,000 acres, an increase of 20,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 300,000 acres, compared to 310,000 last year

Rice: 11.324 million hundredweight, compared to 15.599 million in 2021; Yield: 7,600 pounds per acre, compared to 7,800 a month ago and 8,040 a year ago; Planted Area: 155,000 acres, a decrease of 34,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 149,000 acres, compared to 194,000 last year

Tennessee:

Cotton: 635,000 bales, compared to 583,000 in 2021; Yield: 938 pounds per acre, compared to 869 a month ago and 1,036 a year ago; Planted Area: 335,000 acres, an increase of 15,000 from the prior guess; Harvested Area: 325,000 acres, compared to 270,000 last year

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