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USDA anticipates bigger U.S. corn, soybean supplies

The USDA has hiked ending stocks projections for U.S. corn and soybeans, while leaving wheat unchanged from August.

The 2018/19 corn carryover is estimated at 1.774 billion bushels, up 90 million on the month, with the USDA increasing the 2018 crop production guess while also raising demand expectations for ethanol and exports. Soybeans are seen at 845 million bushels, 60 million more than a month ago, with a record production outlook partially canceled out by a higher domestic crush estimate. U.S. wheat ending stocks were steady at 935 million bushels with no changes to the domestic balance sheet, while world wheat stocks were up modestly.

The USDA lowered its soybean import estimate for China because of trade tensions with the U.S.

The next set of ending stocks projections is out in October. The 2018/19 marketing year started June 1st for wheat, September 1st for corn and soybeans, and gets underway October 1st for soybean products.

2018/19 U.S. wheat ending stocks are pegged at 935 million bushels, compared to 935 million in August and 1.1 billion at the end of 2017/18. Month to month, no changes were made to the balance sheet. The average estimated 2018/19 farm price is $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel, compared to $4.60 to $5.60 a month ago and $4.72 a year ago.

2017/18 U.S. corn ending stocks were reported at 2.002 billion bushels, compared to 2.027 billion last month and 2.293 billion last marketing year. The USDA raised the export guess 25 million bushels to 2.425 billion, putting total use at 14.935 billion bushels. The average estimated 2017/18 farm price is $3.40 per bushel, compared to $3.35 to $3.45 in August and $3.36 for 2016/17.

2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.774 billion bushels, compared to 1.684 billion a month ago. The USDA cut beginning stocks, or 2017/18 ending stocks, while raising production, putting the total supply at 16.879 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was hiked 50 million bushels to 5.575 billion and raised food, seed, & industrial 50 million bushels to 7.130 billion, all that in ethanol, now seen at 5.650 billion bushels, putting domestic use at 12.705 billion bushels. Exports were raised 50 million bushels to 2.4 billion, leaving the total use projection at 15.105 billion bushels. The average estimated 2018/19 farm price is $3 to $4 per bushel, compared to $3.10 to $4.10 last month.

2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks are estimated at 395 million bushels, compared to 430 million in August and 302 million for 2016/17. The USDA increased crush demand 15 million bushels to 2.055 billion and exports 20 million bushels to 2.130 billion, for total use of 4.321 billion bushels. The average estimated 2017/18 farm price is $9.35 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago and down from the average of $9.47 in the previous marketing year.

2018/19 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 845 million bushels, compared to 785 million last month. The USDA lowered beginning stocks and raised production, putting total use at 5.113 billion bushels. Crush use was hiked 10 million bushels to 2.07 billion and residual use was 1 million bushels higher at 34 million, for total use of 4.268 billion bushels. The average estimated 2018/19 farm price is $7.35 to $9.85 per bushel, compared to August’s range of $7.65 to $10.15.

2018/19 world wheat ending stocks are pegged at 261.29 million tons, compared to 258.96 million a month ago and 274.36 million for the previous marketing year. Production was raised more than 3 million tons to 733 million as increased estimates for India, Russia, Kazakhstan, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states canceled out reduced expectations for Australia and Canada. Domestic feed use is estimated at 140.74 million tons, compared to 138.45 million last month, and exports are expected to be 181.39 million tons, compared to 183.87 million in August.

2018/19 world corn ending stocks are projected at 157.03 million tons, compared to 155.49 million last month and 194.15 million last marketing year. Global production is estimated at 1.069 billion pounds, a month to month jump of almost 8 million, most of that in the U.S. The USDA also hiked outlooks for the European Union and dozen smaller former Soviet states but cut expectations for South Africa and Canada. Domestic feed use is expected to be 676.92 million tons, compared to 671.4 million in August, and exports are estimated at 161.71 million tons, compared to 159.61 million a month ago.

2018/19 world soybean ending stocks are now anticipated to be 108.26 million tons, compared to 105.94 million in August and 94.74 million, unofficially, for 2017/18. The world’s crop is projected at 369.32 million tons, compared to the last guess of 367.1 million, with bigger crop expectations in the U.S. and China canceling out small decreases for the European Union and Mexico. Domestic crush use is seen at 308.2 million tons, compared to 308.67 million a month ago, and exports are pegged at 156.9 million tons, compared to 157.96 million last month, but with no changes to current projections for any of the major exporters. Imports by China were lowered 1 million tons to 94 million.