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UNL specialist sees large gap in farm safety net in 2019

A University of Nebraska Extension policy specialist foresees a large gap in the farm safety net for crop producers in 2019.

Nebraska crop producers, for example, have received 500 to 600 million dollars in total payments on each of the 2014 through 2016 crops. But Brad Lubben says that support, most of it coming from the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) program, is quickly disappearing as the current farm bill expires.

“We’re somewhere less than 200 million this year and heading to much less than that next year,” Lubben says.

He thinks there could be a “wholesale shift” to the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program in the next farm bill.

“If that happens, and if we have the current price outlook we have for not much recovery, then we could see some substantial payments due on the ’19 crop—but that’s not paid until 2020,” he says. “So the safety net is still there and it might kick back in again, but we have some cash flow challenges in the meantime.”

Lubben estimates Nebraska producers will receive more than 300 million dollars in trade assistance payments this fall, which will help cash flow projections in 2018.

Link to Lubben’s analysis

AUDIO: Brad Lubben

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