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U.S., world cotton, rice stocks lower

The USDA has tightened the domestic balance sheets for cotton and rice.

U.S. rice ending stocks are now projected at 42.5 million hundredweight, a million less than January with a cut in imports more than canceled out by an increase for exports.

Global rice ending stocks were below a month ago, while production and exports were modestly higher.

Cotton ending stocks are expected to be 2.8 million bales, 100,000 under last month with an increase in exports against a decrease in domestic use.

The world cotton carryover estimate was smaller than last month, while production was lower on a cut for Australia, and exports were down modestly.

The 2023/24 marketing year for cotton and rice started August 1st.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out March 8th.

Breakdown of U.S., world cotton, rice balance sheets:

2023/24 U.S. rice ending stocks are seen at 42.5 million hundredweight, compared to 43.5 million in January and 30.3 million for 2022/23. Imports were up 1 million hundredweight at 43 million for a total supply of 291.5 million hundredweight, while exports were 2 million higher, all rough rice, at 87 million hundredweight, for total use of 249 million. The average estimated 2023/24 farm price is $18.40, unchanged from a month ago and below the average of $19.80 the previous marketing year.

2023/24 U.S. cotton ending stocks are pegged at 2.8 million bales, compared to 2.9 million last month and 4.25 million last marketing year. The USDA reduced its domestic use guess 150,000 bales to 1.75 million, while upping exports 200,000 to 12.3 million bales, for total use of 14.05 million bales. Unaccounted for cotton was adjusted from -210,000 bales to -160,000 bales. The average estimated 2023/24 farm price is $.77 per pound, compared to $.76 in January and $.848 for 2022/23.

2023/24 world rice ending stocks are estimated at 167.18 million tons, compared to 167.25 million a month ago, with production of 513.74 million tons, 200,000 above the last guess. The lone listed change was a change however was a slight cut for the Philippines.

2023/24 world cotton ending stocks are projected at 83.7 million bales, compared to 84.38 million last month, with production of 112.82 million bales, a reduction of 360,000 bales. That followed a reduction for Australia, which canceled out slight gains for Africa and the general Southern Hemisphere.

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