News

U.S. hog inventory 2% lower than a year ago

The USDA says the U.S. hog and pig inventory on March 1^st, 2021 was down 2% on the year at 74.73 million head. That was below what most analysts were expecting heading into this quarterly set of numbers.

The breeding herd was 3% less than a year ago at 6.215 million head and the market inventory fell 2% to 68.558 million head, also below pre-report expectations. The market inventory, by weight, showed hogs and pigs weighing less than 50 pounds at 21.288 million head and the 50-to-119 pound category at 19.118 million head, both 1% lower, with the 120 to 179 pound category at 14.705 million head and hogs and pigs weighing 180 pounds and heavier at 13.446 million head, both down 3%.

The declines were due in part to lower farrowings and higher rates of slaughter late last year and early this year, along with a slight reduction in the average number of pigs saved per litter at 10.94 head per litter, compared to 11 a year ago. December through February farrowings were 3.041 million head, with a pig crop of 33.27 million head, both 1% lower.

Farrowing inventions for the March through May and June through August quarters are also expected to be below a year ago, at 3.07 million head and 3.124 million head, respectively, implying further reductions to the U.S. herd.

50% of the inventory were on contract operations with more than 5,000 head, up 1% from last year.

The numbers look supportive to cash prices, but that will depend on continued strong domestic and export demand for pork.

Year to year comparisons for Brownfield states:

Illinois: Inventory: 5.25 million head, up 2% from March 1^st, 2020; Market: 4.67 million head, 2% higher than a year ago; Breeding: 580,000 head, unchanged from last year

Indiana: Inventory: 4.35 million head, up 9% from March 1^st, 2020; Market: 4.09 million head, 9% higher than a year ago; Breeding: 260,000 head, 4% more than last year

Iowa: Inventory: 23.8 million head, down 2% from March 1^st, 2020; Market: 22.68 million head, 2% lower than a year ago; Breeding: 940,000 head, 4% less than last year

Michigan: Inventory: 1.31 million head, up 6% from March 1^st, 2020; Market: 1.19 million head, 6% higher than a year ago; Breeding: 120,000 head, unchanged from last year

Minnesota: Inventory: 9 million head, unchanged from March 1^st, 2020; Market: 8.47 million head, unchanged from a year ago; Breeding: 530,000 head, 5% less than last year

Missouri: Inventory: 3.5 million head, down 3% from March 1^st, 2020; Market: 3.07 million head, 2% lower than a year ago; Breeding: 430,000 head, 9% less than last year

Nebraska: Inventory: 3.65 million head, down 3% from March 1^st, 2020; Market: 3.21 million head, 3% lower than a year ago; Breeding: 440,000 head, unchanged from last year

Ohio: Inventory: 2.55 million head, down 4% from March 1^st, 2020; Market: 2.35 million head, 4% lower than a year ago; Breeding: 200,000 head, unchanged from last year

South Dakota: Inventory: 1.99 million head, down 1% from March 1^st, 2020; Market: 1.705 million head, 1% lower than a year ago; Breeding: 285,000 head, unchanged from last year