U.S. cotton crop down on year due to higher abandonment

The USDA expects domestic upland cotton production to be 13.772 million bales.

That’s an increase of 2% from the November guess following a higher yield estimate, but well below the 2021 total of 17.191 million with higher planted area more than canceled out by a big drop in harvested area due to increased abandonment, primarily caused by drought in Oklahoma and Texas. The average yield is pegged at 857 pounds per acre, compared to 844 a month ago, with a harvested area of 7.712 million acres. In 2021, the average yield was 813 pounds per acre with a harvested area of 10.149 million acres.

That rise in production led to a boost in domestic ending stocks, now seen at 3.5 million bales, up a half a million on the month, with the USDA also lowering domestic and export demand projections, while leaving the average estimated farm price unchanged at $.85 per pound, compared to $.914 for 2021/22.

Global cotton ending stocks were up on the month with the USDA cutting exports, but production was down, mainly on a smaller crop for Pakistan. Imports by China and exports from India were below month ago levels.

U.S. rice ending stocks were reported at 38.1 million hundredweight, 200,000 more than last month following a reduction in rough rice exports, with the average estimated farm price at $19 per hundredweight, a drop of $.90 from November, but a jump of $2.80 from last marketing year. Global rice ending stocks were tighter with a modest decline in production and an increase in exports.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out January 12th.

Cotton comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: 1.55 million bales, compared to 1.235 million in 2021; Yield: 1,181 pounds per acre, compared to 1,166 a month ago and 1,248 a year ago; Harvested Area: 630,000 acres, compared to 475,000 last year

Kansas: 175,000 bales, compared to 187,000 in 2021; Yield: 553 pounds per acre, compared to 553 a month ago and 880 a year ago; Harvested Area: 152,000 acres, compared to 102,000 last year

Missouri: 740,000 bales, compared to 814,000 in 2021; Yield: 1,184 pounds per acre, compared to 1,104 a month ago and 1,260 a year ago; Harvested Area: 300,000 acres, compared to 310,000 last year

Tennessee: 698,000 bales, compared to 583,000 in 2021; Yield: 1,031 pounds per acre, compared to 1,022 a month ago and 1,036 a year ago; Harvested Area: 325,000 acres, compared to 270,000 last year

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