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U.S. corn, soybean ending stocks steady on month
The USDA made no changes to its ending stocks projections for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat. Most analysts were expecting modest month to month reductions for beans and corn, while wheat was expected to hold steady.
The USDA did tighten the global ending stocks outlook for soybeans, raising the production guess for Brazil while lowering the estimate for Argentina, increased the world carryout and production projections for corn, but left expectations for South American corn unchanged, and lowered world wheat ending stocks with increased feed and export demand cancelling out higher production.
The current marketing year runs through the end of May for wheat and the end of August for corn and soybeans.
The USDA’s prospective planting and quarterly stocks reports are out on the 31st and the next set of supply and demand estimates is due April 9th.
Breakdowns of selected supply and demand tables:
2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 836 million bushels, compared to 836 million in February and 1.028 billion for 2019/20. By type, ending stocks expectations for hard red winter was higher, soft red winter and white wheat were lower, and hard red spring and durum were unchanged. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $5 per bushel, compared to $5 a month ago and $4.58 for the previous marketing year.
2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.502 billion bushels, compared to 1.502 billion last month and 1.919 billion last marketing year. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.30 per bushel, steady with February and up from the 2019/20 average of $3.56.
2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 120 million bushels, compared to 120 million a month ago and 525 million in the prior marketing year. The USDA did raise seed use by 1 million bushels, while lowering residual use by 1 million. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $11.15 per bushel, compared to $11.15 last month and $8.57 last marketing year.
2020/21 world wheat ending stocks are projected at 301.19 million tons, compared to 304.22 million a month ago. Beginning stocks were up slightly, while production was raised more than 3 million tons on increased expectations for Australia, Russia, and India. Domestic feed use is expected to be 152.98 million tons, compared to 147.78 million in February, with exports of 197.69 million tons, compared to 194.84 million last month. The USDA hiked export estimates for Australia, Canada, India, and Kazakhstan.
2020/21 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 287.67 million tons, compared to 286.53 million in February. Beginning stocks and production were also both slightly higher. The USDA raised production outlooks for South Africa, the European Union plus the United Kingdom, and southeast Asia, while lowering the guesses for Russia and Mexico. Domestic feed use is pegged at 728.25 million tons, compared to 727.37 million last month, and exports are seen at 186.55 million tons, compared to 185.70 million a month ago on modest increases for South Africa and southeast Asia. Imports by China were left unchanged at 24 million tons.
2020/21 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 83.74 million tons, compared to 83.36 million last month. Beginning stocks were raised more than a million tons, while production was a little bit above the prior report. The USDA lowered the guess for Argentina, while raising the outlook for Brazil. Domestic crush use is projected at 323.58 million tons, compared to 321.98 million a month ago, with exports of 169.72 million tons, compared to 169.69 million in February. That was on a slight bump up for Paraguay. The USDA left imports by China unchanged at 100 million tons.
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