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Survey: Producers less optimistic in future growth of U.S. ag exports

Producers are less confident in the future growth of U.S. agricultural exports, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

Purdue’s Jim Mintert says the monthly national survey has routinely asked producers about expectations for ag exports since 2019.   

“If you go back three years, roughly 72 percent of the people in the survey said they thought ag exports would increase in the next five years. The percentage of people who are optimistic about ag exports has been declining almost continuously since then. This month, that was down to just 33 percent, so one out of three people in the survey, think that ag exports are going to increase in the next five years.”

He tells Brownfield that explains some of the weakness in producer sentiment.

“If you think about agriculture from the long-term perspective, one of our big sources of growth has been increasing exports of ag products and people seem to be losing confidence that’s going to happen in the future,” he says. “I think that’s probably worrisome and creating some angst and anxiety among producers.”

Eighteen percent of farmer respondents expect U.S. exports to decline. That’s the weakest perspective on future exports since the survey began.

The overall Ag Economy Barometer dropped five points to a reading of 125. Mintert says that’s significantly less than the reading of 165 two years ago.

The Index of Future Expectations declined six points to 121 and the Index of Current Conditions dipped slightly to 134.

The survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers was conducted Feb. 13-17.

Audio: Jim Mintert