Supply & Demand report projects lower milk production, higher exports

USDA’s supply and demand report shows milk production forecasts going down for both 2019 and 2020.  The fat basis import forecast is unchanged from December, but the fat basis exports for 2019 and 2020 are higher based on strong sales of cheese and other dairy-containing products.

On a skim-solids basis, import forecasts are unchanged and export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are raised on strong global demand for nonfat dry milk.

Dairy product price estimates for 2020 have cheese, butter, and whey price forecasts reduced on demand weakness and relatively high stocks. Nonfat dry milk price estimates were raised from December on continued export demand strength.

The Class III price and Class IV milk price was lowered. The 2019 all milk estimate is unchanged at $18.60, but the 2020 all milk price forecast was reduced to $19.25 per hundredweight.

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